The Toronto Raptors entered their playoff series with the Indiana Pacers with the clear talent advantage. Few disputed this. The Raptors roster a pair of All-Stars, won 11 more games, and possess more ways to beat an opponent than the Pacers, who would rely more heavily on Paul George than perhaps the Raptors would have to on Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. The Raptors were a nearly unanimous pick in the series, because they’re a better and more talented team.
After a dispiriting performance in Game 1, one in which both Raptors’ stars played poorly, I wrote, “The Raptors are better than the Pacers. But they have to play like it for that to matter.” They’ve come out and played like it in Games 2 and 3, leaving very little doubt.
It hasn’t appeared to be just a matter of talent. The non-George Pacers are a mess offensively, thanks in large part to the Raptors ratcheting up the defensive intensity. It’s a little reductive and anecdotal, even with the new SportVu hustle stats, but the Raptors appear to be leveraging their talent edge by also out-working the Pacers. It feels like most loose balls have gone Toronto’s way, they have a 32-rebound edge on the glass, and they’re a plus-40 in points in the paint.
More telling than that, Pacers head coach Frank Vogel appeared to call out his team’s effort after Game 3, conceding that, “They just outplayed us in most areas.” George talked about the Raptors’ intensity and physicality and is hoping his team comes out “pissed off” for Game 4. Gregg Doyel of the Indy Star had an interesting piece this morning highlighting some of the maturity issues the Pacers faced in Game 3, including technical fouls in triplicate despite a major edge at the free-throw line, and calling out Pacers fans for getting shown up by Toronto’s fans.
It’s one thing for the Raptors to be the better team. It’s another if they’re the better team and they’re also working harder than their opponent. When Masai Ujiri went out and added Cory Joseph, DeMarre Carroll, Bismack Biyombo, Luis Scola, and Norman Powell this summer, he replaced half of last year’s playoff rotation in the process, with an eye toward stylistic versatility and the ability to win at both ends. These additions were also in the image of head coach Dwane Casey, who has always preached toughness, both mental and physical, but who didn’t have the personnel to live up to his edicts in the past. There have been slip-ups, but Biyombo’s claims back in the season’s opening week that “Nobody is going to punk me,” and that “We’re going to be tough, we’re not backing off of nobody,” have mostly held true.
Lowry is perhaps the best example of this so far in the series.
He’s still not shooting the ball well, full stop. Through three games, he’s 15-of-47 from the floor and 5-of-22 from outside. His four triples in Game 3 were encouraging, but he’s still struggling from around the court, continuing the prolonged shooting slump he found himself in to close the regular season (he shot 37.2 percent over his final 17 games and 32.9 percent on threes in his final 10, if you’re one for arbitrary endpoints). Compare his shot chart from the start of the season until the end of February to his chart from March on, and then into the playoffs (in that order).
He’s been adamant that the elbow he had drained on March 28 is fine, and while he wouldn’t admit it even if it wasn’t, I’m of the mind this is just a slump until we hear otherwise.
And it doesn’t even matter all that much right now, because Lowry’s done a ton to help the Raptors win despite an off-kilter release – he’s added 13 rebounds, dished a series-high 24 assists, nabbed four steals, and generally been a giant pain in the ass of the Pacers. He’s touching the ball more times per-game than any other player in the playoffs, covering more distance on the floor than anyone else, and creating the fourth-most assist points per-game, all per NBA.com. He’s drawn a pair of charges. He’s second to only Raymond Felton in deflections with 13. He’s recovered three loose balls. And so on. He’s also second only to LeBron James in minutes played, and the Raptors have outscored Indiana by 8.7 points per-100 possessions with Lowry on the court, getting rolled by 24.7 PPC when he hits the bench. There’s a lot of talent, quality of teammates, and general noise that goes into those numbers, but the point is that Lowry’s managed to be remarkably effective despite poor shooting marks.
Jonas Valanciunas, meanwhile, has destroyed the Indiana bigs on the glass. Not only is he leading the postseason in rebounds at 16 per-night (a mark that represents an obscene 32.4 percent of available rebounds), exactly half of those have been classified as contested, and he leads the league in that regard, too. Between himself and Biyombo, a defensive menace off the bench and no slouch on the glass himself, the Raptors are holding the Pacers not only to the second-lowest rebounding percentage in the playoffs, but the lowest field-goal percentage at the rim at just 38.4 percent. Valanciunas has also recovered four loose balls, and the center duo has combined for 15 “screen assists,” one of the NBA’s fun new hustle stats.
Scan those leaderboards, by the way, and George is everywhere, further speaking to how he’s the lone Pacer really setting a tone and playing to his standards. The stats are hardly a mic drop, and they’re mostly just for fun, but the Raptors had 13 deflections in Game 3 to seven for the Pacers, six loose balls recovered to Indiana’s two, and four screen assists to their one. It’s nice to have these counting stats to be able to look at and say “you know what, yes, the Raptors did outwork the Pacers, just like it felt.”
Cory Joseph, meanwhile, has taken up the mantle with Lowry struggling to hit from the floor, deciding he just won’t miss at all anymore.
The list goes on. Carroll finally looked like Carroll in trying to help slow Paul George down in Game 3. Powell’s brought a ton of energy and defensive intensity when called upon. Scola’s an ill fit in this series but hasn’t been a detriment when on the floor. Patrick Patterson’s plus-minus this year and into the playoffs makes Amir Johnson look like Linton Johnson. Even DeMar DeRozan, still struggling to score, changed his approach and passed on a higher percentage of his touches Thursday, dishing 14 potential assists, more than his Games 1 and 2 combined.
As a roster, the Raptors are better than the Pacers. To a man, save for George, they’ve also outworked them in back-to-back games. If DeRozan gets going at the offensive end to swing the talent gap further in Toronto’s direction, in DeRozan’s words, it could be a “scary sight.” And if he doesn’t, it might not matter if the Pacers can’t find their grind.
