The Toronto Raptors will look to deliver a massive blow to the hopes and psyche of a reeling Indiana Pacers squad on Saturday, as they tip off at Bankers Life Fieldhouse at 3 p.m. on TNT (U.S.) Sportsnet (Canada), TSN 1050 (Canadian radio).
The Raptors took home-court advantage back by winning in Indiana in Game 3, opening up a 2-1 series lead and making Game 4 a must-win for the Pacers. If Toronto wins Saturday, the series probably isn’t going back to the Hoosier State, so expect a more game Pacers team than the one that showed up Thursday.
Before we go ahead with the Game 4 preview, let’s take a look back at Game 3, maybe the best the Raptors have looked all season.
What happened in Game 3
Raptors 101, Pacers 85 | Box Score | Quick Reaction | Podcast
Key to the game: The Pacers believe they were outplayed and outworked. If that’s the case moving forward, there’s just no way for the Pacers to overcome the talent gap at hand.
Recap: The Raptors met and even exceeded expectations, looking every bit like a 56-win team.
Turning point: Already up seven, the Kyle Lowry-plus-bench unit opened up the second quarter on fire against an all-bench Pacers unit and kept up the momentum as starters staggered back in. The result was the lead ballooning from seven to 23 over the first 10 minutes of the quarter.
Reason for optimism: Lowry and DeMar DeRozan continue to shoot poorly and the Raptors have still managed to win back-to-back games. Lowry is getting it done all over the floor except for the shooting mark, bringing a defensive intensity, diving for loose balls and darting for steals, and breaking the Pacers down with dribble penetration. DeRozan was a more willing passer in Game 3. And everyone else has stepped up at both ends to help bring the team up, including DeMarre Carroll, who looked the best he has since returning. Everything seems to be firing exactly how you’d want it the past two games.
Reason for pessimism: The team’s role players have basically been playing perfect basketball. There’s no evidence Cory Joseph, Patrick Patterson, or Jonas Valanciunas will slow down, but it’d probably be best if the All-Stars find their strokes. Paul George continues to be a problem, despite Carroll’s improvements. The Pacers may go small, conceding their rebounding deficiency but trying to stretch out the Raptors’ defense and make them uncomfortable, particularly to start halves. And the Pacers should really, really be geeked up for this game.
Revising prediction: I shifted a “Raptors in five” pick to “Raptors in seven” after the series-opening loss, not because of a fundamental change in how I see the series, but because winning twice on the road in the playoffs is really difficult, which the Raptors have to do to take it in five or six. But man, if they play like they did the last two games, my original prediction may end up just fine.
What’s happened since
Almost nothing. We linked to some post-game quotes above, but everything was pretty quiet out of practices Friday, and there aren’t shootarounds Saturday. That happens with a quick turnaround, I guess.
Quick Q&A with Ian Levy
As he did for the series preview, Ian Levy of FanSided answered a few questions to give us a Pacers perspective. He also had some Pacers-Raptors thoughts in FanSided’s new daily feature, “The Rotation,” which should be a feature you’re checking out daily during the playoffs.
Blake Murphy: When we did our series preview, you picked Raptors in six (I had Raptors in five). The series is probably playing out similar to how you expected, then. What’s surprised you the most through three games, or moved the needle with respect to your overall expectations?
Ian Levy: I’ve been surprised by how disjointed everything has looked around Paul George. He was so good in Game 1, but it was a lot of him just exerting his own individual excellence as opposed to the flow of the offense opening things up for him. Ian Mahinmi being hurt has really disrupted their rotations. Monta Ellis, George Hill, Rodney Stuckey, and C.J. Miles have all struggled to create and hit shots. I expected to the Pacers to be overmatched, I didn’t expect them to look so fragile. I still think they win another game but the possibility of anything beyond that feels even more unlikely.
Blake Murphy: We keyed in a bit on Myles Turner’s potential impact, too. Obviously, Jonas Valanciunas is dominating, but do you think the slender Turner could take on an even bigger role in the series’ second half? Specifically, do you think he’s now the starting four, or even five?
Ian Levy: Turner has helped, especially because Mahinmi has been so limited by his back injury. However, he limits things quite a bit as well. Turner is more comfortable with a pick-and-pop than making a rim-run after setting a screen, which can clog the mid-range area a little. He’s also not the passer that Mahinmi has developed into, which prunes some of those corner three-pointers off short-rolls from their offensive outcomes. I think they’ll have to play him more but I’m not sure it’s really enough.
Blake Murphy: Frank Vogel has played some curious lineups at times, even rolling out an all-bench unit. What would you tweak about Vogel’s rotations so far? And I know the focus right now is in the paint, but does Ty Lawson even have a place in this series any longer? He’s been bad, and staggering minutes so that Monta Ellis is the de facto backup point guard, to me, seems like the way to go.
Ian Levy: Lawson is tricky because as bad as he’s been, the Pacers need something and him catching fire is one of the few aces up their sleeve, however unlikely it is that it actually happens. With regards to lineups, I think this is the time to really lean into the small ball thing. Cut Lavoy Allen from the rotation. Center minutes go to Turner and Mahinmi. Work Miles and Solomon Hill at power forward, spread the floor and play a lot more aggressively on defense. Start playing like the team they want to be instead of the team they are.
What the Raptors need to change
More Patterson: I’ll talk about this a little more below, but Patrick Patterson should be playing more than he has. The team’s plus-minus king, Patterson’s been a huge boost on defense and really helps the offense breathe, and Dwane Casey was a little slow to give Luis Scola the hook in the first and third.
Try their best lineup more: The Raptors have a lot of good lineup iterations that are exciting, flexible, and versatile at both ends. The starters with Cory Joseph in place of Scola in a smaller look, for example, was good whenever Carroll was healthy this year. But the Raptors’ deadliest lineup might be the current starters with Patterson in for Scola, a group that’s outscored the Pacers by 14 points in just 12 minutes. Not to get ahead of anything, but that’s a group that could be really important if Toronto gets past Indiana.
A related quick hook: Building off of those two points, Casey has to be ready to make a quick call at the start of each half if the Pacers’ (likely) new lineup causes problems.
What the Raptors need to keep doing
Pressuring George: George still got his in Game 3, but Carroll did a better job on him than anyone had over the first two games. the Raptors forced George into 13 contested shots (68.4 percent of his attempts) after only 51.3 percent of his looks were contested in the first two games. He’s going to score, but the Raptors made it tougher, and the other Pacers have proven incapable of hurting the Raptors when the ball comes out of George’s hands.
Use Lowry as a screener: I don’t have by-the-play numbers to back this up, but it feels like the Raptors’ offense has been really effective when Lowry works as a screener, particularly in screen-the-screener sets, with either Joseph or DeRozan as the ball-handler. The Raptors love these plays, anyway, but with Monta Ellis standing as a middling defender and both second-unit guards highly exploitable, they’re even higher-EV in this series.
DeRozan distributing: Speaking of DeRozan, he cooled after a nice start in Game 3 and forced up some bad shots, but he passed on a higher percentage of his touches and had more “potential assists” than in Games 1 and 2 combined. That’s the right mentality in response to his shot not falling over George’s tough defense.
Everything else: They’ve been awesome. We’re talking minor tweaks here.
Game 4 updates
There are no injuries to report on the Raptors’ side, beyond Carroll confirming that his minutes restriction has been lifted. He played 35 minutes on Thursday and should be good for a full workload from here on out.
That means the rotation should be similar, with apologies to Norman Powell. There are so few backup wing minutes to go around with Joseph playing 24 per-night, 16 of them in two-guard lineups, and Carroll working a full load. Even T.J. Ross played sparingly outside of his stints with the Lowry-plus-bench unit. To Powell’s credit, the team is surely confident that he’ll be ready when (if) called upon. For now, it looks like a tight nine-man rotation, with even that ninth man in a limited role.
Raptors projected rotation
PG: Lowry, Joseph
SG: DeRozan, (Powell)
SF: Carroll, Ross
PF: Scola, Patterson
C: Valanciunas, Biyombo
The obvious move on the Raptors side, either from a proactive standpoint or in response to what the Pacers might do, is still to start Patterson. But I get it. Scola would be rendered essentially useless against Indiana’s second unit, and he’s played fine with the starters (not that results should overrule process, but it hasn’t really been an issue). If the Pacers go small, a Carroll-Patterson forward combo could be terrific both ways, while also limiting Indiana’s ability to send extra help at Valanciunas in the pick-and-roll. Patterson should be playing more, anyway, and it’s tough to get him 35 minutes as a reserve.
But again, I understand the logic behind the status quo, even if it’s not how I’d operate. The leash just better be short if the starting group stumbles defensively.
Pacers projected rotation
The Pacers opted to start Myles Turner at the four for the second half of Game 3, and I think they might get even more aggressive and go super-small to start, with Solomon Hill or C.J. Miles at the four, and maybe even Turner at the five (less likely). In any case, I think Lavoy Allen’s probably done for the series, and Jordan Hill may even get a cameo. I could also see Ty Lawson being sent to Eagleton, with Monta Ellis taking over backup point guard duties I talked about some of these potential changes with Jared Wade of 8 Points, 9 Seconds on Friday.
Here’s my best guess at how it will look, assuming Ian Mahinmi (back) is able to play:
PG: G. Hill, Lawson
SG: Ellis, Stuckey
SF: George, Miles
PF: Turner, S. Hill
C: Mahinmi, (J. Hill)
Whatever the rotation, Vogel has to do away with the five-man bench units. It’s candy for the Lowry-plus-bench group at the start of the second or fourth, and lineups without G. Hill, George, and Ellis have been outscored by 16 in 28 minutes in this series (and by 21 in 24 minutes if you exclude garbage time). I mean, thank you, but why?
The line
Game 1: Raptors -6.5
Game 2: Raptors -7
Game 3: Raptors -1
Game 4: Raptors -1.5
I’m writing this Friday afternoon, so it’s entirely possible things will change by game time, but the market is once again holding firm. The line has essentially been the same for all four games when controlling for home court, give or take a point, and the Pacers aren’t getting any sort of desperation bump. The over-under is also coming in at 193, and it’s sat around 193-195 for each game (the series is averaging 187, and I’ve taken the under each time).
There’s no shootaround today, so check back just before tip-off for the regular pre-game news and notes. I’ll give a prediction then.
