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Pre-game news and notes: Stoudemire and Biyombo start at center

Let's get weiiiiiird!

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Who’s ready to get weird?

The Toronto Raptors will play the Miami Heat in Game 4 of their Eastern Conference Semifinal on Monday, and while we’re three games into the series, nobody really seems to have any idea how this one may play out. The Raptors lead 2-1, sure, but they also just lost their starting center and most dominant player so far in Jonas Valanciunas, who’s done for the series with an ankle sprain. Advantage Heat, right? Well, not until Wednesday at the earliest, because their center, Hassan Whiteside, is out Monday with a sprained MCL. It’s possible that Whiteside could be done for the series, too, but the Heat are playing things day by day.

(For what it’s worth, Ethan Skolnick is reporting that Whiteside’s sprain is a Grade I, the least severe grade, and that a stability test later in the week could determine his status for later in the series.)

That means both teams will be forced into some unusual rotations in this one. The Heat are woefully thin in the frontcourt as is, but they should be fairly comfortable playing smaller by now. The Raptors, meanwhile, have better depth but may prefer to just match small, a look that suits them well on paper but that they don’t have a wealth of experience with. However this game plays out, the Raptors have moved to being -210 favorites in the series (an implied series win probably of about 68 percent), so there’s a great deal of confidence the Raptors can take two of four from here.

Expect Game 4 to feel more like a Game 4, with each coach making quick changes and trying new things to try to find groups that work.


The game tips off at 8 p.m. from American Airlines Arena. TNT has the game in the U.S., with Ian Eagle, Brent Barry, and Allie LaForce on the call, while TSN has the Canadian broadcast and TSN 1050 has radio rights. Mike Callahan, Brian Forte, and Bill Kennedy are the officials.

Required reading
Here’s what you need ahead of Game 4, assuming you haven’t been keeping up.

*Shyam’s got your game preview, and Zarar and Will previewed the “new” series on the podcast.
*Even though the initial hope wasn’t too pessimistic, Valanciunas is done for the series. He’s hoping to be back for the next round, if the Raptors can make it that far. This has pretty huge rotation implications. If Whiteside doesn’t return, that has some major implications, too. Here are a few fun Valanciunas wrinkles we’ll miss out on, and a few other tactical notes from the series so far.
*The other big storyline right now is Dwyane Wade shooting during the Canadian national anthem in Game 3. He meant no disrespect, but expect traveling fans to belt out the anthem in response tonight.

This has nothing to do with Raptors-Heat, but this is a really great Devin Booker story.

Raptors updates
This is incredibly tough to figure. It’s also really difficult to separate “what I think Dwane Casey will do” and “what I would do.” This is a lot of guess work, both for this space and for Casey all night.

Let’s start with this: I’m almost positive Bismack Biyombo will start. He’s always drawn the starts when Valanciunas has been out in the past, and while he’s having a pretty poor series, he’s still the best rebounder in the playoffs on a percentage basis, and one of the best screeners in the postseason. He can help fill the gap better than most backup centers, and if the Heat are committed to playing their flawed bigs, Biyombo will have some utility. Biyombo is also a fit as the center in smaller lineups, as he can switch on to most player types, show hard in the pick-and-roll and recover, and dominate on the glass. Oddly, he and Patrick Patterson have played poorly together in a small playoff sample when there aren’t two point guards on the floor (it’s a noisy sample), but they make some sense as a larger-minute duo, and they were good together in the regular season.

From there, I’d give Lucas Nogueira a look in the traditional backup center spot. He’s up and down and a bit spacey at times, but he has great length and agility, nice shot-blocking instincts, and is the team’s best option for punishing small Miami groups on offense – Nogueira has soft hands around the rim, is dangerous on the catch, and is a good enough passer to combat high hedging in the pick-and-roll and to ward off smalls digging in if he has the ball in the post. He may not have Casey’s trust, though, and if he does play, it will be a short leash.

The Heat are almost certainly going to go small at some point, and when they do, I’d counter with Nogueira or a forward at the five. I’m not talking Luis Scola, who doesn’t make sense against any Heat big except maybe Udonis Haslem, or Jason Thompson, a half measure in all senses. Patterson can play the five if the Heat are small, James Johnson could probably body Luol Deng or even Haslem at that spot, and there’s little to be lost on the glass when the Heat go smaller if the Raptors match size at every position.

Expect a lot of single-big lineups, a lot of two-guard and two-wing, or one-guard and three-wing groups, or even a mega-small set with DeMarre Carroll working as the de facto center. These sound like extreme steps, but the series is now going to be played on small terms, at least in part, and the Raptors can goose their spacing and switchability on defense and in transition with some lineups. They’ve played a bit without their three main centers, and while the data stands out as maybe off (per NBAWowy.com) and definitely skewed by garbage time, it’s clear that these lineups lead to all sorts of offense both ways.

no C

Here’s what the rotation could look like, assuming Bruno Caboclo is inactive instead of suiting up as a surprise starting center:

PG: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph, (Delon Wright)
SG: DeMar DeRozan, Norman Powell
SF: DeMarre Carroll, Terrence Ross
PF: Patrick Patterson, (James Johnson), (Luis Scola), (Jason Thompson)
C: Bismack Biyombo, Lucas Nogueira

Sigh. I really have no idea. Check back before tip off to confirm Biyombo is starting.

UPDATE: He is.

Heat updates
We could basically write all the same things here about the Heat. Erik Spoelstra said at shootaround that he expects to use all three of his bigs, and he’s rotated Udonis Haslem, Amar’e Stoudemire, and Josh McRoberts in the backup role during the series so far. Each is flawed – Haslem is small and can be helped well off of on offense, Stoudemire is washed defensively, McRoberts doesn’t offer much rim protection – and so the Heat will probably look to go small at times.

That means Luol Deng as a de facto five, something the Heat tried out for 17 minutes during the regular season. They could go with Goran Dragic, one of Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow, Dwyane Wade, Joe Johnson, and Deng (who, by the way, has a few inches on Haslem), an incredibly versatile group that offers spacing, ball-handling, and the ability to switch all over the defensive end. Again, the Raptors can counter with a true center to dominate the glass, but it’s also tough to ask a true big to stick with this kind of lineup on the perimeter. Chess match!

In any case, the Raptors need to fundamentally change their approach no matter who’s in at center – their ball-handlers have been incredibly passive attacking in this series, even by the standards Hassan Whtieside creates, and Lowry and DeRozan are a combined 6-of-6 in the restricted area when Whiteside’s off the floor in the series. (And yes, that’s a criminally low number of attempts…look at these percentages, per NBA.com!)

whiteside

Assuming Bosh ais the lone inactive, the rotation will look something like this:

PG: Goran Dragic, Josh Richardson, (Tyler Johnson), (Briante Weber)
SG: Dwyane Wade, Gerald Green
SF: Joe Johnson, Justise Winslow
PF: Luol Deng, (Dorell Wright)
C: Amar’e Stoudemire, Udonis Haslem, Josh McRoberts

Check back before tip off, but the guess here is that Stoudemire starts over Haslem, with an exceptionally quick hook. My guess is just that they’d rather have a scoring threat in there to start opposite Biyombo, lest he be free to protect at the rim freely.

UPDATE:Stoudemire is starting, and base don the quote below, we can assume Biyombo is, too.

Winslow, by the way, should draw back in after the first DNP-CD of his career in Game 3.

Pre-game notes/quotes
*This guy kills me.


*This kills me for a different reason.


*So ready to get weird.


*YOUR HAIIIIIIIR is everyWHERRRRRRREEEEE. Screening infidelities…


Assorted
*Pro-tip: White t-shirts never look as good as white-out sounds in theory. Nice try though.


*He might be picking the Warriors, but shout out to the global ambassador.


*Well, this is a garbage omen:



Anthem stuff
I can’t be bothered to spill much on this, but Wade was in line and orderly for the Canadian anthem.

The line
Game 1: Raptors -4.5 (Heat 102, Raptors 96, OT)
Game 2: Raptors -5 (Raptors 96, Heat 92, OT)
Game 3: Heat -5.5 (Raptors 95, Heat 91)
Game 4: Heat -5

This one was a little surprising. I thought before looking that the Heat would probably be favored to win this game – it’s very hard to win two in a row in Miami, let alone in the playoffs when the Heat are in something close to a must-win situation – with the Raptors taking a little too long to feel things out, but I thought it’d be a tight line. It’s come down from Heat -5.5 or -6 in some places and has also touched -7 and -4.5, so this one is as all over the place as much as my own thinking about it is. I really have no idea how to call this one – check back once we know the starters and I’ll make a call. I’m a coward.

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MIAMI, FL - MAY 9: The Toronto Raptors are seen during the game against the Miami Heat in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Semifinals at AmericanAirlines Arena on May 9, 2016 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2016 NBAE (Photo by Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images)

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