The last time the Toronto Raptors hosted the Atlanta Hawks, it was an historic occasion. But not really for the best of reasons, from the Hawks perspective – the Raptors lambasted the visitors by 44 points, setting a franchise record for margin of victory and continuing to put the NBA on notice that this Raptors team is very, very legitimate, and not just skate-by-the-lesser-teams legitimate. The Hawks came in struggling and didn’t have Paul Millsap, to be fair, but that’s as emphatic a win as you’ll find.
Well, the Hawks are back, and Millsap’s healthy this time around. They’re still reeling, with a 12-13 record, the league’s No. 25 offense, and a defense that’s slide from No. 1 to No. 6 in the span of just two weeks. Two wins against East competition appeared to at least steady the ship last week, and a very light schedule has let the Hawks get back to health. Still, an 11-point home loss to the Magic on Tuesday is evidence that Atlanta doesn’t have it all figured out just yet.
Top 5 in both OffRtg & DefRtg in December: Houston (3, 3) & Toronto (1 & 5).
Bottom 5 in both: Atlanta (26, 28) & Lakers (29, 29).— John Schuhmann (@johnschuhmann) December 16, 2016
It’s on the Raptors, then, to push Atlanta further toward their breaking point rather than looking at this as another layup.
“Human nature. Let down. You think OK, this is the same team that came in here a couple weeks ago, and they’re not,” head coach Dwane Casey said at shootaround. “They’re going to come in with their high beams on. They have their all-star back in the lineup. They’re not on a back-to-back. They’ll be a dangerous team. We’ve got to fight human nature. We went through that at the end of the Philadelphia game to show anybody can beat anybody if you’re not locked in and focused.”
The game tips off at 7:30 on TSN and Sportsnet 590. You can check out the full game preview here.
Raptors updates
He’s listed as questionable after missing Wednesday’s game with a sore knee, but Lucas Nogueira is “fine” in Casey’s mid-day estimation. He then revealed at pre-game media availability that Nogueira is available tonight. And that’s great, because two of the best games of his young career have come against the Hawks, and the Raptors will need him to keep the second unit dominant and possibly to battle Dwight Howard should Jonas Valanciunas find himself in foul trouble.
DeMarre Carroll will get to face his old team, too, with no back-to-back scenario at play. That could mean a lot of cross-matching two-through-four, as Carroll would be best utilized guarding Millsap, not Thabo Sefolosha or Tim Hardaway Jr. (or Kent Bazemore if he draws back into the starting lineup). DeMar DeRozan can handle those names, and Pascal Siakam could draw Sefolosha in a cross-match that he can help off of a bit more freely (Sefolosha is a strong shooter but not a major threat to attack Siakam’s aggressive closeouts). At the same time, Siakam has done well in man-to-man situations against tough power forwards, so it seems likely he’ll at least get the first crack at Millsap. Patrick Patterson, of course, is the most natural check for him, and he figures to draw the Millsap assignment in the fourth quarter.
As for who is tasked with chasing Kyle Korver around, that will likely depend on whether he continues to come off the bench or not. If he does, that will be a shared responsibility that Terrence Ross will take the first crack at, an iffy proposition if you’re in the crowd that still isn’t sold on Ross being more locked in defensively. Norman Powell’s done a great job on Korver in the past and could see time, especially if Nogueira’s out and the Raptors go small in the second unit.
PG: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph, Fred Vanleet
SG: DeMar DeRozan, Norman Powell
SF: DeMarre Carroll, Terrence Ross
PF: Pascal Siakam,Patrick Patterson, Bruno Caboclo
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Lucas Nogueira, Jakob Poeltl
ASSIGNED: None
TBD: None
OUT: Delon Wright, Jared Sullinger
Hawks updates
There are a lot of question marks around the Hawks, and none of them have to do with injuries. Millsap and Bazemore are back, but head coach Mike Budenholzer is still trying to find the right lineup configuration to get the most out of his team. Hardaway Jr. will start once again on Friday as Bazemore comes off the bench in limited minutes, and it will be interesting to see if Budenholzer continues to start Sefolosha. Doing so gives the team their best foot forward to stop DeRozan and Korver is a big bench threat, but in the long-run, Atlanta would probably prefer Korver to find his way with the starting five.
Getting Millsap back is huge, and fundamentally changes the Hawks and this matchup. Even though they’ve struggled even with him, they’re a ludicrous 17.9 points per-100 possessions better with him on the floor. It also sounds like he’d be just the best dude to play with.
“He’s very versatile. He can do it all. He can shoot the three-ball. He can penetrate. He can guard bigger guys. He can do it all,” Carroll said at shootaround. “He’s very unselfish. That’s the biggest thing with him. He gets his within the game. THat’s probably why he might not be known as a big superstar, because he’s not aggressive as most superstars are. It’s a good thing. It fits for the Atlanta Hawks. It fits for his personality.”
He’ll be the focus of Toronto’s gameplan at both ends, because the Hawks go as he goes.
PG: Dennis Schroder, Malcolm Delaney
SG: Tim Hardaway Jr., Kyle Korver, DeAndre’ Bembry
SF: Thabo Sefolosha, Kent Bazemore, Taurean Prince
PF: Paul Millsap, Mike Muscala
C: Dwight Howard, Kris Humphries, Ryan Kelly
TBD: None
ASSIGNED: Mike Scott
OUT: Tiago Splitter
Assorted
- The Raptors recalled Bruno Caboclo and Fred VanVleet from Raptors 905 this morning after they suited up Thursday night. VanVleet had a tough night finishing around the rim but was masterful as a playmaker. Caboclo, meanwhile, showed a really, really encouraging sign: After a pretty terrible first half, he shook it off completely and was a two-way difference maker in the second half. That seems like a small thing, but the ability to get through a bad start, refocus, and contribute later is something Caboclo hasn’t been able to do in the past, so I’m taking this as an encouraging sign from a psychological development perspective.
The line
After opening as 7.5-point favorites, the Raptors have been bid down to “just” 6.5-point favorites. Oh, the disrespect! The line could nudge back to Raptors -7, based on the afternoon trends, and if that half-point matters, you should be able to find it somewhere. The over-under, meanwhile, has bounced between 214 and 216, currently resting at 214.5. The Hawks play at a top-five pace and the Raptors are the Raptors, so assuming a somewhat neutral/average pace, this looks like a bet on the Raptors’ dominant offense and two defenses who have been mediocre of late continuing as such. I think the Hawks put up a much tougher fight than last time out and play the Raptors to the wire.
Raptors 110, Hawks 105
