Gameday: Raptors @ Heat, March 11

The Raptors hit South Beach looking to bounce back on the second night of a back-to-back.

If the Raptors are hoping to win in Miami tonight, shooting better than the 4 for 25 from the 3-point line that they just did in Atlanta would be a good place to start. Especially since Miami has been making better than 40% of their 3’s as a team since January.

The Miami Heat were supposed to be as bad as they looked in starting the season off twenty games under .500, firmly entrenched in the lottery. However, whether they used the Monstars stolen powers basketball or just figured things out, they’re 20-4 since January and have knocked off the NBA’s top teams in that time as well. Goran Dragic leads the attack for the Heat and has been flanked by outstanding outside shooting from Tyler Johnson, Dion Waiters, Wayne Ellington, Luke Babbit, Rodney McGruder and James Johnson. Not exactly the murderers row you would have expected to run to a 20-4 record. Especially Johnson, who frustrated Raptors fans the last two years because he showed such potential but couldn’t get on the court at first, only to eventually frustrate fans with how he played once he did late last season. Johnson has blossomed in his role in Miami though, getting in shape and suddenly shooting great from deep, and he figures to play a key role against the Raptors.

For the Raptors part, they may continue to look to Jonas Valanciunas more tonight than they had been when Kyle Lowry was healthy. Jonas’ offensive contributions have been a key element in some recent wins as the team struggles to fill the void left by the absence of their best player. Valanciunas dominated Hassan Whiteside and the Heat before falling to injury in last year’s playoff series. Valanciunas being aggressive and effective offensively while playing reliable enough defense to at least stay on the floor could be a key factor in whether or not the Raptors can win.

While the Heat have been winning with the strong play of their supporting cast, the Raptors have gotten mixed results from their’s. The bench struggled badly last night for the Raptors, and they’ll need much better performances from those guys, particularly Patrick Patterson, if they’re going to survive Lowry’s absence. Patterson was essential in the Raptors early season success, holding together the defense, scoring and closing out games. Since coming back from injury Patterson has not been himself on defense and vacillated between missing shots and simply not taking them on offense. Look to Patterson to have a better game if the Raptors are going to win.

It’s a tough back-to-back for the Raptors, who need to pick up the win to keep pace with Boston and Washington in the playoff race. For Miami, a win against the Raptors and a Milwaukee loss puts them into the 8th seed—a feat that none of us saw coming two months ago. The Raptors will have their hands full with a Heat team that has inexplicably forgotten how to miss.