Once upon a time, Old Spice appealed to the elderly. That all changed with a new ad campaign in 2010 that got weird. (I’m on a horse.) Old Spice didn’t change the product, simply the positioning. As a result, more than a decade later companies embarrass themselves trying to make phony weird commercials, and they teach old Spice’s ad campaign in marketing schools around the world.
Now, the Toronto Raptors did change the product in acquiring Jakob Poeltl. But that doesn’t mean the team couldn’t benefit from some rejigging of how it presents itself — namely, in the beginning of games. On the season, Toronto is 16th in net rating — at negative-1.0 — with five starters on the floor. The Raptors have benefited in a small way (obviously outweighed by the negatives) from the absences of Gary Trent jr. and O.G. Anunoby since the trade for Poeltl. The starting lineup has made sense with two low-usage finishers in Poeltl and Precious Achiuwa alongside three high-usage creators in Fred VanVleet, Scottie Barnes, and Pascal Siakam.
That fivesome has won its 43 minutes by 19 points. Meanwhile Toronto’s erstwhile starters, with Trent and Anunoby in place of Achiuwa and Poeltl, have won their 361 minutes by just 16 points. Put another way, Toronto’s makeshift starters have outscored the long-term starters by 120 percent despite playing in 12 percent of the minutes. Fit matters, on both ends!
That doesn’t mean this current fivesome should remain the starters when everyone is healthy, at least not necessarily. The Raptors’ current group has pillowed its numbers against some bad teams. And they’ve also had some fortunate shooting luck — over 50 percent from deep. The current starters are an option, but they aren’t the only one.
Let’s do this comprehensively. First thing: I’m ignoring contract status and off-court significance. Players like VanVleet or Barnes can’t really be put on the bench for obvious reasons — VanVleet’s importance as a leader, his upcoming contract negotiation, and the fact he’s Toronto’s only real NBA-starter-level point guard. Barnes because he’s the reigning Rookie of the Year and future superstar. For the purposes of this exercise, both will go through the statistical wringer.
The starting point has to be Pascal Siakam. He’s the All Star, the reigning All-NBA player, the leading scorer, and the on-court leader. He has the best offensive on/offs on the team, and he’s the foundation. The team works — to the extent that it does — because of him. Siakam has to start. Okay, with that in mind, an idealized starting lineup then has to be built around the framework of him being on the court.
The second player who isn’t much of a question mark is Poeltl. Maybe if the Raptors start losing, the team can reconsider. But as long as Poeltl changes the texture of the team, he’s starting.
Poeltl’s plus-minus marks are astronomical, just completely out of this world. The plus-minus leader on the season is Nikola Jokic, at plus-27.0, which is insane. Poeltl’s at plus-35.9 … in minute totals that make it meaningless. Okay, so that’s obviously not going to last, but the Raptors have been out of the world in his minutes. He’ll start, at the very least, until that’s not true. Speaking about his minutes though, he’s at 79 on the season. Because of that, lineup data shouldn’t include him at the moment. Which means to choose the next starter, the data should really be compared to Siakam rather than Poeltl simply because the sample is big enough.
Going back to 2019-20, which is when Toronto’s current core of Siakam, VanVleet, and Anunoby all entered their current roles (or at least close enough), there is a clear winner for a player who’s been most successful alongside Siakam. The Raptors have won their minutes with Siakam and VanVleet, but they have flat-out dominated with Siakam and Anunoby on the court together. The net rating of plus-7.7 is the best of any combination of Siakam, VanVleet, and Anunoby. Anunoby is a fantastic complement; he is an elite catch-and-shoot shooter and defender, and he helps out the offense in a number of small ways, such as opportunistic post-ups, good screens, and powerful driving.
The two have elite chemistry on both ends. On offense, Siakam looks for Anunoby, particularly in the corners. They’re a top-20 duo in the league in passes from the paint to the corners.
On defense they can pass opposing stars back and forth, switching and covering ground like synchronized swimmers, but also sharks. Synchronized swimming sharks? They’ve been in sync for years and years; they’ve played over 5000 minutes together over their careers — as a point of comparison an NBA team plays just under 4000 total minutes in a season.
Alright, that’s three roster spots filled. Toronto has players playing in their positions, with Poeltl at center, Siakam at power forward, and Anunoby at small forward.
To maximize that trio, there’s a lot Toronto needs in terms of additional skills. The Raptors need shooting, especially off the bounce. (Anunoby and Siakam can hit catch-and-shoot triples, but neither can space the floor from behind the arc with the ball in their hands.) Toronto needs ball handling and creation. And it needs off-ball movers — cutters and screeners who can keep the gears turning no matter what else is happening on the floor.
That’s why the next starter should be VanVleet.
To my eyes, VanVleet has run something like double the number of pick and rolls with Poeltl as has Siakam, and the Raptors have created better stuff in those moments, as well. VanVleet is double-teamed the ninth-most in the league, even more than Siakam, and those blitzes create space for Poeltl’s scoring and passing to devastate defenses in four-on-three situations. If teams opt to stop Poeltl as a roller, VanVleet has both the team’s highest assist rate and highest pull-up 3-point shooting efficiency. He’s the deadliest partner with Poeltl, which gives Toronto something other “please save us Pascal.”
His creation ability is actually unique within his role. He’s putting up one of 12 seasons in NBA history with an assist rate over 25 percent, usage rate under 25 percent, and turnover rate under 10 percent. (He has another of those seasons to his name, along with elite guards like Brandon Roy, Mike Conley, Fat Lever, and others. Also, among that group, he’s fourth in true shooting percentage; guards like him usually aren’t extremely high-efficiency from the field, on top of all that point guard-ery.) You can quibble with his shot selection once or twice a game, but by and large he’s an enormously unselfish player who creates high-value offense. On top of that, he’s an elite screener and cutter; he travels the furthest distance on offense on the team and at the fastest speed. Like Kyle Lowry before him, he’s almost more active on the offensive end after he gives up the ball.
Yes, VanVleet has been poor defensively at the point of attack. But he hasn’t been by far the worst point-of-attack defender on the team; both Barnes and Trent give up comparable rates of blowbys. And if VanVleet isn’t starting, one of those players would have to start at the point. So the defensive issues would remain either way. The hope has to be that with Poeltl at center cleaning up messes — letting Siakam and Anunoby do what they do best as gap-fillers and diggers off the ball, rather than weak-side rim protectors — Toronto can handle speedy guards a little better.
That’s four. The fifth starter is on one hand obvious — Barnes is the future superstar, of course — but a little more complex when you dive into the numbers. Alongside the trio of VanVleet, Anunoby, and Siakam, the net ratings of the three contenders show a clear winner. Achiuwa’s plus-35.6 towers over Barnes’ plus-1.9 and Trent’s plus-2.7. Of course, Achiuwa’s foursome is at only 57 minutes, while the other two groups are hovering around 500. But you can convince yourself of Achiuwa over the other two if you squint: He’s a fantastic defender (although he would slot in at the power forward slot, mucking up the traditional position thing) whose rim protection has been enormous alongside Poeltl’s in this three-game stretch. Opponents are taking just 29.0 percent of their shots at the rim in the combined minutes between the two (91st percentile) and 40 percent from the midrange. Achiuwa is another low-usage (theoretically) player who can let the star-role players control the ball. He’s a great complement who can attack from the second side on drives and hit threes. (Again, theoretically.) While he is shooting 25.3 percent from deep, he’s also shooting an excellent 49.1 percent on drives.
But you know who is shooting better than that on drives? Both Trent and Barnes. The argument for Trent is clear: he’s the team’s best shooter, a good cutter around pindowns that the Raptors like to use to shift defenses, and he’s a (read: the only) natural shooting guard on the team. He’s playing the best basketball of his life.
If the Raptors started Trent, Toronto would have a point guard, shooting guard, small forward, power forward, and center playing their correct positions in the starting lineup. The last time that happened, the Raptors won a championship. Obvious causation, right? Ha. Maybe not.
But Barnes is probably the clear winner. Dive into his net rating alongside VanVleet, Anunoby, and Siakam: The vast majority has come without a center on the floor. Of course the brunt of the minutes have come with Trent playing, but so too have there been swathes with Juancho Hernangomez, Thad Young, Chris Boucher, Malachi Flynn, and more. The minutes with Koloko have been surprisingly mediocre and with Khem Birch surprisingly good, but neither of those are meaningful minute totals. The hope has to be that having a center on the floor will unlock Toronto’s foursome.
There would be other potential issues. Anunoby might be forced into a lower-usage role than he’d like with VanVleet, Barnes, and Siakam all higher in the pecking order. VanVleet and Barnes have been terrible on the defensive end together. There’s not enough shooting, with one total non-shooter in Poeltl and two middling ones in Siakam and Barnes. (Although, Siakam is up to 34.3 percent from deep on the year, and that’s nothing to scoff at.)
Still, it should be Toronto’s best lineup. Anunoby has survived a lower-usage role his entire career. VanVleet and Barnes may not be great defensively together, but Toronto would do its absolute utmost to sand down any rough edges with three enormously talented defenders alongside. Besides, the offense with both on the floor is spectacular enough to make it work. And the shooting has actually been great with Poeltl in the lineup.
I asked Nurse about that, and he explained Poeltl can help unlock shooting despite not being a shooter himself: “I think a roller tends to collapse defense and give you more open looks… I think our point guards and guys coming off screens are hitting guys too.”
Barnes’ passing is dynamic enough to compensate for a whole lot of other issues, and he creates in more ways than almost anyone in the league. The Raptors need him on the floor. Trent would be able to come off the bench as a sixth-man gunner, which could be his destiny. He is an absolute force as a scorer, and in some ways having to space for and defer to players like Siakam, Barnes, and VanVleet isn’t a maximization of his talents. Nurse has used Trent as an offensive fulcrum in bench units, particularly dashing around wide pindowns. Defenders usually ride him high over the screen, which opens up the middle of the court for Toronto’s rim-attacking wings. If defenders let him catch, he loves to pivot into a pick and roll with the defense still recovering and start to dance.
That’s a structural ability to create solid offense with one or more of the foundational pieces sitting. And it’s more valuable alongside bench players than starters, with fewer options to create efficient looks. Besides, when he’s come off the bench this year, Trent has been significantly more efficient. At least in front of the media, he has expressed no displeasure with coming off the bench despite it being a contract year.
Achiuwa would also be bumped to the bench. He has more or less the same per-100-possession numbers in both situations, although his efficiency is higher as a starter, too. He is versatile, but not to the extent of Barnes, and he can’t shoot like Anunoby. Losing his defense to start games hurts, but in Poeltl, Siakam, Barnes, and Anunoby, the Raptors simply have too many forwards and wings for too few starting spots. Achiuwa is the casualty, but the Raptors would need to find 30 minutes a game for him regardless. He’s too talented and too important on both ends for Toronto to be a winning team without Achiuwa playing big minutes. (The same, of course, is true of Trent as an offensive weapon.) It’s good for Toronto to have bench players who need to play lots of minutes.
Toronto has spent the majority of this season with a strange, top-loaded roster. There have been six consistent, NBA-rotation-level contributors, or perhaps seven if you forget about a few games here or there. Seven players is not enough to build a rotation. But with Poeltl? Eight works much better. With Poeltl in the rotation, Thad Young for example is bumped down from seventh/eighth man to eighth/ninth — that makes a lot more sense for a player with his athletic limitations. The team is less reliant on Malachi Flynn and strangely thus more able to play him. With a bench led by Trent and Achiuwa, the Raptors would be hard pressed to find 38 minutes a game for starters, rather than forced to top that nightly.
The way the team relates to its players, the reliance and need, the positioning, has all changed since the acquisition of Poeltl. The players remain mostly the same, but the packaging has shifted. Like Old Spice before them, the Toronto Raptors have repositioned themselves slightly and found huge benefits. The starting lineup will need to shift. But if handled right, the team could see huge benefits as a result of the repositioning.
