One 6th of last nights game was played without Fred VanVleet’s presence on the court. It was where the Raptors lost the game. Let’s investigate why.
Simply put, the Raptors lost the 8 minutes and 12 seconds that VanVleet wasn’t on the court by 26 points. It’s hard to even fathom that type of disparity, but it happened. Nearly half of the damage came with a disastrous, ugly stretch of play where the Raptors completely unraveled at the sight of the Wizards zone defense. Kicked off, ironically, by a kicked deflection courtesy of bench mob alumni Delon Wright, triggering a layup in transition for the Wizards.
Two and a half minutes, 3 turnovers, 3 missed shots and a 12-2 run for the Wizards as they closed the gap, and created a small one of their own. Outside of the classic “flash middle, collapse the defense, make the read” approach to zone offense (which is easier spoken than it is done against NBA defenses) the Raptors most consistent approach to attacking zone is usually with disguised flares against a top corner of the zone, or screening the side for a corner shooter on the move. Shooting around the sidelines basically, and largely done so by one of VanVleet or Gary Trent Jr.
With Trent Jr. shooting 2-7 in this one, and VanVleet off the floor (also shooting 2-11 from three when he was playing), the Raptors tried to playmake toward, or in, the middle of a tightly contested Wizards interior. It went horribly wrong. It’s not even that the Raptors defense fell apart here, because they only allowed one half-court make in this stretch. That make, a triple, was courtesy of Precious Achiuwa switching onto Bradley Beal, and promptly deciding he was no longer interested in guarding him.
Another 3-minute stretch without VanVleet, this time in the 2nd quarter, and the Raptors lose it by 8 points. From 32-36, to 36-50. Undone by a zone defense again? No, not really. We get a lineup of Trent Jr.-Barton-Achiuwa-Young-Boucher, which lasts about 40 seconds, before Siakam takes Achiuwa out of the game. Objectively light on shot creation – especially, once again, with Trent Jr. struggling in this one. On defense, they struggle to stop the ball in the open floor. Boucher gets bowled over by Kyle Kuzma before a layup, Thaddeus Young steps all the way out of the lane as the big in the pick n’ roll, parting the seas for a wide open Wright layup. With Poeltl off the floor, the Raptors chase closeouts wildly and inevitably allow a wide-open three. Abject failure, everywhere.
VanVleet played the whole 3rd quarter! 1-6 from the floor, the one make being a triple on a nice bit of playmaking where Anunoby came off a wide-pin, collapsed the defense, found Poeltl on the block, and Poeltl hit VanVleet when the corner collapsed. Otherwise, VanVleet did a pretty slick job of finding Poeltl in the pick n’ roll — where Poeltl has been sublime, borderline perfect for the Raptors — to help keep the Raptors offense chugging along.
So, the last collapse, where is it? We’ve accounted for 20 of the 26 points so far, where are the rest? The opening stretch of the 4th quarter has typically been Siakam’s place to rest lately. Even getting as much as 6-7 minute stretches on the bench before coming into close games out. In this one, the rest, and a meager one at that, went to VanVleet as the Raptors watched the deficit balloon from 13 points to 19 points.
In this game, for the first time in a long time, Siakam was completely incapable of providing a floor for transitional units. Nurse put him out there with hardly any shooting, and the offense fell apart. It’s not as silly as it seems, perhaps, because the Raptors had a lot of success last season by deploying large, wing-y units that created heaps of turnovers, defended like hell, and scored in transition. Last night? Siakam missed a wide-open layup at the rim in transition. We can let that operate as the spiritual explanation for the Raptors lack of success. They didn’t defend, or score, or do much of anything. Also notable? Poeltl isn’t present in any of these lineups. You play next to him? You win minutes. That’s been a pretty good bet since he arrived in Toronto.
Now, how did VanVleet succeed without Poeltl? Well, he was on the court for Boucher’s personal 8-0 run for the Raptors. A fun lil stretch of play, but not necessarily repeatable success.
VanVleet contributed in this game, and especially as he came on stronger in the second half as a playmaker, but I wanted to figure out how 8 minutes could go so wrong, and if it had anything to do with VanVleet. Turns out, it had more to do with Siakam as he had the worst game of his season. The Raptors rely on him to carry their in-between units, and especially without VanVleet on the floor. There’s a sample of over 3000 possessions over the last two season of Siakam lineups without VanVleet, and they’ve won them by about 4 points per 100 possessions. He’s an All-NBA player and he’ll turn it around, so not much to worry about there. Let’s hope everyone wins their minutes in game 2 of this doubleheader.
Have a blessed day.
