You may remember the Toronto Raptors’ January 1, 2023 game against the Milwaukee Bucks for the Raptors’ offensive ineptness, scoring zero points for the first 6.5 minutes of the game. But there was one area in which Toronto actually scored brilliantly.
The Raptors scored 1.533 points per possession (ppp) on inbounding set plays, including sidelines out-of-bounds (SLOB) or baselines out-of-bounds (BLOB). That game ranked among the 20 most efficiency SLOB and BLOB games in the league that season, among the 281 games with at least 15 such inbounding plays. Toronto even scored five points in the last 30 seconds on SLOB plays, forcing overtime.
Nick Nurse certainly had fantastic clipboard kung fu, but there were many reasons why the Raptors eventually moved on and hired Darko Rajakovic. And Rajakovic has done much to instill a new culture — one replete with more cutting, ball movement, and joy.
But Rajakovic has not been nearly as successful as Nurse when it comes to the clipboard. It’s a small but meaningful part of coaching. Last year, the league average in points per possession on SLOB or BLOB plays was 1.104. Yet the Raptors had the highest points per possession in the league on such set plays, averaging 1.197 ppp. Given the difference between league average and Toronto’s output, Nurse’s success on “coaching” plays like SLOBs and BLOBs earned the Raptors an extra 68 points.
To compare, this season, the Raptors have been much worse on such coaching plays. They’re currently ranked 27th on BLOB and SLOB ppp, averaging a pitiful 0.901. Keep in mind, the average half-court possession for Toronto is notching 1.007 ppp, which is 30th. So this is part of a larger problem for Toronto, if a more extreme version of it. Furthermore, Toronto’s half-court offense last year was just as problematic. Yet they were the best on inbounding set plays. That strength has faded under Rajakovic.
While one might attribute Toronto’s lost SLOB and BLOB efficiency to the loss of a key player — Fred VanVleet — that isn’t supported by the numbers. While VanVleet was an inbounding specialist, frequently scurrying from a BLOB inbounds pass behind a hammer screen to the corner, receiving the ball, and launching a triple, the Raptors were virtually identical in SLOB and BLOB efficiency with or without VanVleet on the court last year.
Much of Toronto’s flawed scoring on inbounding set plays is a natural result of the early days for Rajakovic. He’s a rookie head coach and hasn’t instituted his entire playbook yet — unlike Nurse, who was well established last year. He is still implementing the foundational principles as opposed to the flourishes and tricks of inbounding plays. The film also shows many opportunities for Toronto on set plays simply resulting in ordinary offensive motion. Instead of using the unique passing opportunity to find an easy look, the Raptors have simply thrown the ball up top and gone into a high pick and roll. That’s okay! Every team does that sometimes, but it does mean the Raptors have ceded higher-value options in order to flow into their normal half-court offense, which has not been strong.
At the same time, Toronto has run some scripted actions in some games, and they still haven’t been effective. Against the San Antonio Spurs, even though Toronto ran more complex scripted sets, it only managed 0.727 ppp. This came in a game in which Toronto’s half-court offense was actually solid, scoring above average not for Toronto but for league-wide half-court offense. Yet the BLOB and SLOB sets lagged behind. Much of this wasn’t Rajakovic’s fault — the Raptors created great looks on a variety of plays, yet they just didn’t fall.
Yet some moments appeared as though the Raptors weren’t entirely sure what play they were running.
When Toronto did find success, it often came after nifty off-ball screens and exit cuts that resulted in empty-side actions, whether via handoffs or pick and rolls, between Dennis Schroder and Jakob Poeltl.
Empty-side pick and rolls were a major part of Toronto’s offense last year, running almost 23 such plays per 100 possessions. It’s a way to simplify the pick and eliminate the problem of not having help available from the corner — by not having anyone in the corner, offensive or defensive player. Having a knockdown shooter there would theoretically be a benefit, but if the offensive player in the corner is only a middling shooter, the defense might just break its shell and help from the strong-side corner, conceding a non-threatening triple. Toronto has short-circuited all that by running this simpler version of the pick and roll. Schroder has run the 15th-most empty-strong-side-corner picks this season, averaging a fantastic 1.114 points per possession on such plays. It’s a strength, and if Toronto can get the defense moving and shifted even a sliver before flowing into empty-side actions for Schroder, that is likely to produce efficient offense.
Perhaps the most encouraging moments on Toronto’s inbounding sets against San Antonio came late in regulation, when Toronto desperately needed good looks. It was able to create them on inbounding set plays, whether by putting the defense in rotation or by using decoy cuts to create a post touch.
It’s impressive that Toronto was able to generate those looks in those situations. The Raptors on the court were engaged and aware, knowing what cuts needed to be made and when. That hasn’t always been the case, and it shows the team has certainly done more than simply institute principles to this point. The playbook is coming along, if slowly.
To that point, perhaps there is a silver lining in Toronto’s steep drop in SLOB and BLOB efficiency this year. There are plenty of reasons why, and it’s not like Rajakovic doesn’t have effective sets up his sleeve. The team has generated better looks than its ppp would indicate, and as the season has gone on, the inbounding sets have looked crisper and more complex. Things are moving in the right direction.
Without Nurse, the Raptors lost a clipboard wizard. Rajakovic hasn’t yet replaced him there, but the team has still improved in a variety of other ways. If it can become a SLOB and BLOB leader once again under Rajakovic, that would go a long way towards propping up Toronto’s flagging offense.
All statistics are from Second Spectrum and are accurate as of Nov. 8, 2023.
