It couldn’t be more ON.

This isn’t going to be pretty. But I have to go. It’s my last game of the season as a (partial) season ticket holder, and it has the potential to blow up the Unintentional Comedy Scale. That said, unlike bad movies or bad music, there’s no inherent ironic pleasure from watching bad basketball. It can be sickening and depressing, and at this point in The Year of the Tank (in the NBA, not specifically with the Raptors) I’ve seen enough bad basketball to last 5 more Anthony Davis Sweepstakes seasons.

But the rules say they have to play the games. So the Nets will come to town on Thursday to do battle with the Raptors, and the result could have far-reaching ramifications. I’ll save the pre-game and post-game for those scheduled, but allow me a “best” and “worst” case scenario in terms of lottery odds. In the cases below, I have used “chance of landing the #1 pick” as “Odds,” but you could certainly extend the exercise to include chances at a top-3, top-5, etc.

Team Wins Losses Games Wed Thurs “Best” “Worst” Best Odds Worst Odds Diff
Charlotte 7 57 2 @Orl NY 1 1 0.25 0.25 0
Washington 18 46 2 @Cle Mia 2 2 0.199 0.199 0
New Orleans 21 44 1 @Hou 3 7 0.156 0.043 0.113
Sacramento 21 44 1 LAL 3 7 0.156 0.043 0.113
Cleveland 21 43 2 Was @Chi 3 8 0.156 0.028 0.128
Toronto 22 43 1 NJ 3 8 0.156 0.028 0.128
New Jersey 22 43 1 @Tor 3 8 0.156 0.028 0.128
Golden State 23 42 1 SA 6 9 0.063 0.017 0.046
Detroit 24 41 1 Phi 8 9 0.028 0.017 0.011
Minnesota 26 39 1 Den 10 10 0.011 0.011 0
Portland 28 37 1 @Uta 11 11 0.008 0.008 0
Milwaukee 31 33 2 Phi @Bos 12 14 0.007 0.005 0.002
Houston 33 32 1 NO 13 14 0.006 0.005 0.001
Phoenix 33 32 1 SA 13 14 0.006 0.005 0.001

Best Case
NJ d. Tor
Cle d. Was
Cle d. Chi
Sac d LAL
NO d. Hou

Does this seem like a long-shot? Of course it is, but the Bulls,  and Rockets all have nothing left to play for, so it’s not entirely inconceivable.

Result: The Raptors move into a 3-way tie with Nawlins and Sacto for the 3rd worst record in the league.

Worst Case
Tor d. NJ
SA d. GS

This seems more plausible, yes?

Result: The Raptors fall into a two-team tie with G-State for the 8th-worst record in the league.

The swing here for the Raptors is a full 12.8%, ranking from just 2.8% (worst case, and a lost coin-flip with the Warriors) to 15.6% (best case, and a won coin-flip with the Hornets and Kings). It also seems a lot more likely that the “worst” case happens.

Middle Ground
NJ d. Tor
Cle splits Was/Chi
LAL d. Sac, Hou d. NO

This scenario has the Raptors lose, the Cavs beat the lowly-but-hot Wizards, and the other bad teams lose as expected.

Result: The Raptors end in a two-team tie with Cleveland for the 5th-worst record, giving them an 8.8% shot (if they win a coin flip) or 6.3% shot (if they lose the coin flip).

Anyway…no real point to this article other than as an update of the “Lottery Standings” or “Tank Artillery Standings.” Enjoy the Worst Basketball Game Ever.

  • Pbjake

    Let’s start Alabi! Let’s start Alabi!

    • howlonghowlong

      Start Alabi, Uzoh, Forbes, anderson, Ed davis and bench Derozan.  This is a MUST lose game.  Lottery is lottery, and any team can win but no need to ruin our odds. We watched a terrible Raps team all year for the sake of “watching players develop”, “changing to a defensive culture”, and “a lottery pick”.

      The verdict:

      a) Our players didnt’ develop like we hoped for (especially Davis and Derozan)

      b) Good work casey, you did your job.  Raptors went from 30th 2 years in a row defensively to 14 in one shortened season without a true 5.

      c)  Anthony davis would make this the tank year a success.  MKG/Beal maybe?  Otherwise, it would be tough to justify a year of tanking for Perry Jones III, Jeremy lamb, or cody zeller.

      Go Cavs, Go Nets, Go NO, Go Sac!!!

      Out of curiosity … what do you guys think Ed Davis and Amir Johnson (combined) are worth – draft wise?  Are they worth a lottery pick? or just a late first round pick?  considering  that Sessions got the cavs a first round pick.  Gerald Wallace can get the blazers as high as as a 4-7 pick (Nets have top 3 protected pick).

  • Destro

    G-Ben Utero
    G-Ben Seaver
    F-Allan Anderson
    F-Wayne Embry
    C-Nav Bhatia

    #TankGawds

    • http://theondeckcircle.net/ Blake Murphy

      I am bringing my good shoes so that I can suit up if called upon.

    • Nilanka15

      Nav’s got a lethal jump hook.

  • cesco

    NO decided to “rest” Gordon last night against GS . No fear , Beli ( 23 pts , 4 rbs , 4 AS . 3 steals ) threw a wrench in his team dream to finish at least 3rd last . Scored the winner with 8 seconds left ( it was goaltended ) . NO has WON 9 of their last 10 games , GS has LOST 6 of the last 8 . If any team deserve to get the #1 pick it has to be NO ( thanks to their players ) .

    • Destro

      Belinelli was a useless piece of shit in a raptor uniform…just like you’re a useless piece of dogshit in this forum…

      • cesco

        Are you posting from your mother basement or the cuckoo nest , just wondering .

      • Nilanka15

        cesco’s Italian.  That should explain why anyone would discuss Belinelli on a Raptors site.

        • cesco

          Beli has more desire in his little finger than the entire GS team has in their collective brain . Tanking is for losers .

          • Nilanka15

            Missing the playoffs for 4 straight seasons, while acting like we have a good team, is for losers. 

          • Destro

            Beli is a loser….thats why GS traded him and Raps too.

            • cesco

              Beli is making 3.3 millions/year . You are living in your mother basement or at the cuckoo nest , a poor loser and idiot . You can’t afford a brain transplant which would be your most immediate need .

              • Destro

                I own 2 properties and a business and my beard is properly groomed unlike you and your italian countrymen…take your L Stanley and STFU

                • Lucamacus

                  a hot dog stand and a kiosk in the mall…..be proud

                • Destro

                  If it makes money it dont matter what it is doofus….

                • CJT

                  I;m with you, I;m sure it is a dope ass hotdog stand. 

          • Truthkiller

            Now you’ll claim Belinelli is better than DDR

        • Destro

          It couldnt be anymore obvious that he and that other faggot are italians….no other reason to stan such mediocre trash….even being italian its disgusting….

          • cesco

            Come to think of it , you are a monkey that a lonely old lady is using as her toy boy , that is disgusting all right .

            • Destro

              monkey huh..i see that cism is coming out….only a matter of time..

              I bet everything i own you’d never come out of pocket in person cuz id open hand slap you with the strength of Judea and all 12 tribes…  

              • Lorenzo

                You forgot to change your call sign fagg boy

            • Destro

              racist piece of shit….dont let me catch you offline..ill open hand slap the fuck out of you with the strength of Judea and the 12 tribes…

              • Raps4Ever

                Unprovoked, you call the guy a “useless piece of dog shit”, but cry racism when then guy calls you a monkey. Awwwww, what a whiney little asshole you are.

                • Destro

                  ^ co signing cism….

                  not surprised..i knew it’d come out eventually on here…

                • Raps4Ever

                  wrong again, just like your warped soul is about almost everything you spew.

                • Bill

                  What’s with the double standards? You’re going to call racism on him while calling him an Italian faggot?

                  Homophobia is okay because it doesn’t end in “ism” and I guess racism is terrible unless you’re hating on Italians.

                  Line your racism up, I’m Chinese, tons of chinks in the chain for you to attack if you want.

                • Destro

                  Im not going to engage in a argument with ppl who dont have a clue what they are talking about….italians are not a race….Race and ethnicity are 2 different things…if you think comments about ethnicity and racism are the same thing or have served the same purpose in the new world…then you dont read enough books….

                • Lorenzo

                  So you’re saying that being an “ethnicist” is not as bad as being a racist? Lol you fucking idiot, white people don’t take pride in their color (unlike the majority of African-Americans) they take pride from their country and what they represent. You think if you call a white guy a cracker or honkey that they’ll get offended? HAHA. 

                • Bill

                  Good dodge – you still haven’t addressed my call of double standards regarding your homophobia.  Good for you, hypocrite.

                  I believe you’re the one who needs to do more reading. 

                  Perhaps you weren’t aware, but there are many different forms of
                  biological categorization, which confuses the definition of
                  race.

                  Per Wikipedia, “”Racism” and “racial discrimination” are often used to describe
                  discrimination on an ethnic or cultural basis, independent of whether
                  these differences are described as racial.”

              • TdotRaptors

                Stop starting shit online you internet tough guy, constantly hijacking the thread with your bullshit negativity and your vulgar language. Say your piece, move on, and stop bitching about anything and everything. Fuck, you’re annoying, grow up. 

                • Destro

                  who are YOU ? nobody is talking to you…

              • CJT

                I don’t support the “cism” in anyway shape or form and while what he said is clearly that, you did attack his nationality first.  You are not guilt free in this. 

                • Destro

                  As i said above its nowhere close to being the same thing and the fact you try to balance out the issue shows you do support it….

                • j bean

                  It’s very close to the same thing. Ask someone with family members killed because of tribal differences or religious differences if they think being killed because of race is worse.  

                • Lorenzo

                  Do you want to explain to us why you believe this? Hopefully you bring up slavery.

  • Nilanka15

    Hey Gots2Go, curious to hear your thoughts on Chad Ford’s analysis of your son:

    Tony Wroten Jr.

    The prosecution: Wroten is a selfish guard who tries too often to
    overpower his opponent. His game can kill team chemistry. To say his
    jump shot is broken would be an act of charity. It’s ugly. His
    out-of-control game has the potential to spill over into other areas of
    his life.

    The defense: The draft is devoid of talented point guards who could be
    franchise players. Wroten might be the only one who could be an All-Star
    someday — if he settles down. His strength, his size, his athletic
    ability and aggressiveness make him, at the very least, another Tyreke
    Evans.

    The verdict: Good luck. Most teams are scared to death of him. They love
    him, but very few seem to have the courage to take him over safer names
    like Kendall Marshall and Damian Lillard. Even Marquis Teague might
    pass him by draft night. 

    http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/blog?name=nba_draft&id=7849649&_slug_=nba-draft-jury-andre-drummond-other-top-prospects&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba%2fblog%3fname%3dnba_draft%26id%3d7849649%26_slug_%3dnba-draft-jury-andre-drummond-other-top-prospects

    • sleepz

      I’m sure gotstogo will have his take but Chad Ford is an observer just like we all are. He may be more connected than most and has a nice desk at ESPN but he watches the games just like the rest of us. He kills him in his description of him but then goes on to say he’s the only one of the pg prospects who could be an all-star someday?

      Most teams are “scared to death of him” but “they love him”? I’d rather risk it going with talent than play it safe picking a dude who will just be an average player or a contributor.

      If Raps don’t secure another mid-to late round pick it will be quite the cherry on a thoroughly dissapointing season. Guys like Wroten and P.Miller will be sitting there waiting to be picked. These are freshmen players that while nowhere close to being finished products have very high ceilings and need to mature but have all-star talent. I’d rather take my chances with dudes like that on a team that is supposedly rebuilding and trying to ‘stack assets and talent’.

      • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

        Chad Ford is full of shit, ESPN shitted on the Pac 12 all season long.smdh

        TWJr’s so called- out of control game has the potential to spill over into other areas of his life- wtf is CFord talking about?

        TWJr, just turned 19 April 13, comes from a very stable 2 parent home (both parents are college graduates), isn’t a gang member, doesn’t drink nor smoke, doesn’t hang out in clubs, goes to church, is a gym rat….

        Brandon Roy has taken TWJr under his wing pre draft- tell CFord that.

        TWJr is a top 10 player in this draft- point blank, whomever drafts him will have a legit basketball talent on their hands to groom plus one of the steals in this draft.

        Just wait until the pre draft combine and indivdual workouts and we’ll see who rises and who falls on NBA team’s Big Boards.

        TWJr in the TDot would turn it out no doubt..

        • Rick

          Yeah, Tony is a great kid, a character guy. He also had to be THE guy on a Huskies team that wasn’t very deep. He has a relentless motor, is a great rebounder, and can be an elite defender. That jump-shot IS fixable as said by many scouts, he just has to put in work over the offseason. I believe he’ll be the steal on draft night. Would love to seem him in T.O as well, he would change the whole makeup of this roster. 

      • Destro

        Exactly Chad Ford isnt an authority on anybody he watches the same clips as everybody else…I can name a ton of players he whiffed on….

        • CJT

          He does have the ear of a lot more people than the cats on the forum do.  I don’t know the kid, don’t pretend to and hope he is everything that you and all of your personalities say he is. 

  • ckh26

    Tomorrow-night’s matchup has the potential to be a highlite reel of tanking. There is nothing tangible to be gained by winning one more game when the season is over. There is something to be gained however by losing. The players will play hard… but front office strategy will become apparent when some guys are sat down to prevent them from being hit by space debris or pulling a muscle if they get hot. This could be very ugly.

    • cesco

      Which game are you talking about ? . The Raps play to-morrow night .

  • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

    I see a TDot W over NJ tonite- Raps win, Raps win- #StankNation wash your ass!!

    • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

      I mean tomorrow nite’s game.lol

  • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

    2 words for tonite’s game- Gerald Green…….

  • Raps4Ever

    Sheeesh, if trying to educate the masses about lottery possibilities, shouldn’t one first become educated themselves? You’ve misrepresented what happens in the case of ties, and what a coin flip is used for.

    For one example, in your example of the Raps and Cavs being tied for the 5th worst record, there isn’t a coin flip to determine 5th/6th. The number of chances assigned to each position are split equally between the two teams, and a coin flip is only used when that total is an odd number. Such a coin flip determines the 1 more chance (out of 1,001) that the winner gets. In other words, such a tie for 5th scenario would not result in one team getting 88 chances and the other 63, based on a coin flip. It would result in 1 team getting 76 and the other 75.

    • http://theondeckcircle.net/ Blake Murphy

      Not really a fair criticism – in previous articles I’ve broken this down in detail, the tie breakers, etc, as well as what happens in various scenarios (both for our team and others). This was meant as a quick article to update the standings, not to educate, and even then, the coin flip does still technically determined who has the better odds (however slight)…you’re not wrong, just feel like that’s an unwarranted criticism given previous articles and the intent of this one.

      • Raps4Ever

        Well, whatever you’ve said in other articles, bottom line about this one is that the conclusions that were drawn are simply wrong:

        1. “The swing here for the Raptors is a full 12.8%, ranking from just 2.8%
        (worst case, and a lost coin-flip with the Warriors) to 15.6% (best
        case, and a won coin-flip with the Hornets and Kings)”
        2. “Result: The Raptors end in a two-team tie with Cleveland for
        the 5th-worst record, giving them an 8.8% shot (if they win a coin flip)
        or 6.3% shot (if they lose the coin flip).”

        Is it really unwarranted to criticize totally false numbers being presented as part of your conclusions? Sheeesh, you now say the intent of the article was to “update the standings”. C’mon, you’re really going to roll with that? Sorry, but the “intent” of the article isn’t defined by the title you give it, but by the actual content. 90% of the article was in reference to “allow me a “best” and “worst” case scenario in terms of lottery odds”, and you seriously failed in providing accuracy to your conclusions.

        • http://theondeckcircle.net/ Blake Murphy

          Is the general idea the same? Give or take a few percentage points, and just take the message as the same. Fine, their “best case” would be 12.1% instead of 15.6%, and their “worst case” would be 2.3%. The spread is 9.8% instead of 12.8%. You can criticize the numbers, and yes I probably should have taken the 10min extra to do it rather than just wrap it up…but the takeaway is literally the exact same. Big swing, from a tie for 3rd to a tie for 8th, with a significant swing in odds at a top pick. Forgive me for approximating, but I stand by that it doesn’t warrant vitriol.

          • j bean

            The fact there is such a difference in best to worse case is something I wasn’t aware of. The difference in percentages  between what you stated and the percentages Raps4Ever gave aren’t that much but it’s still expected that your article would get it right. Then again the tone of his reply was overly critical.  

          • Raps4Ever

            Sheeeesh, I didn’t think my critique was all that caustic, but I apologize for the “shouldn’t one first become educated themselves” comment. The rest of my comment stands, in that the numbers, that you chose to write about, are misrepresented and inaccurate. Sorry my presentation was offensive.

            • http://theondeckcircle.net/ Blake Murphy

              No, you’re absolutely right…I shouldn’t have taken offense, my apologies. Using rough numbers without stating so, and expecting people to remember the key details from prior articles, was unprofessional of me. I will update the article tomorrow and break down more scenarios, with exact tiebreaker odds, as best I can estimate. Thanks for keeping me on point, RR always appreciates constructive criticism.

          • pran

            just make sure the raps  lose, like they always do when you cover them and all will be forgiven. 😉

            • http://theondeckcircle.net/ Blake Murphy

              haha sadly I don’t have post-game duties, and their record when I’m in attendance is actually pretty stellar this year. Sorry.

  • 2damkule

    you beat me to it…

  • 2damkule

    as does the homophobia & xenophobia…

  • Truthkiller

    It’ll probably be a full house and I laugh @ all the suckers that’ll go to this TankFest Nets vs Raptors tomorrrow night. 

  • BCStefanskiCaseyGots2Go!!!

    Baylor’s SF Quincy Miller is entering the 2012 draft as well.

  • ChuckNewton

    This game has a bit of history to it: http://www.holycraptors.com

  • Colef

    Well, Cleveland just lost to the Wizards. So, I think we should aim to lose to NJ, and then everything else hopefully can fall into place for us to finish in a tie for fifth.
    This can happen if this pretty likely scenario happens: NO beats Houston but Sac and Cleveland lose. If NO loses, we finish sixth. I am happy with 5th or 6th. We shouldnt really be any worse to be honest, considering we are more talented and better coached then the five worst teams, although I guess you can argue that Sacremento is more talented. I would probably take their roster on paper over ours, if I had the choice…
    Anyway, Go Nets!

  • 4pt_play

    this is what they should do…  teams to try to score on their own basket. so they have to win to lose.  that would be interesting.  the teams then inbound the ball to their team-mates who try to score right away.  lol.

  • AB7.38pt.on.CB4

    The draft pick position, if 5th-6th or 7th says Bradley Beal all night long. Safe pick, good to great shooter prospect, good to great defender, good ball handler, good IQ. He can come off from the bench in his rookie year. I prefer him to others because he is a polished player who excel in shooting. Spacing in playoff games is fundamental for the coach. 
    Game down the stretch you can have Beal in a corner (aka R.Allen), DD to slash, AB doing AB, JV for the slam.Can’t wait

    • Nilanka15

      Most mock drafts today, don’t have Beal lasting as long as 7th.  But I suppose a lot can change between today and draft night based on team workouts.

      • sleepz

        Beal  = Hersey Hawkins