I went pretty deep with my recap from Tuesday’s loss to the Golden State Warriors and I had a bit of a busy day, so I didn’t have time for a second post-game reaction piece (editing this now, it’s 1,000 words, so I guess I did).
I did, however, promise I’d double back to the awful stretch of play late in the second quarter where head coach Dwane Casey was painfully slow to adjust to the Warriors destroying an over-matched Toronto Raptors frontcourt. From the 5:54 mark of the second to the 1:23 mark, the Warriors outscored the Raptors 21-8, with the Raptors managing just one stop. One stop. A single stop. In 4:31. The Warriors shot 9-of-12, didn’t turn the ball over, and corralled two of their own rebounds. One stop.
Luis Scola and Jonas Valanciunas were sharing the floor during that time, as they did for 18 minutes in total Tuesday. The Raptors were outscored by seven points in those 18 minutes, meaning the team actually outscored the Warriors with that pairing to start the first and third quarters. But the bad stretch was with Festus Ezeli in at center, not Andrew Bogut, and while that’s not a net upgrade overall, it made for too difficult a frontline for Scola and Valanciunas to defend. Neither Raptors big played well in the second, but it’s not entirely on them – this was a bad matchup on paper, it played out as such, and Casey was slow to make a change.
When he finally did, the Warriors had an 18-point lead. Things were out of hand enough that I spent halftime drawing pictures in MS Paint, half expecting to not have to do a proper recap and simply writing “Warriors are good, here are some doodles.” It’s a huge credit to the Raptors that they fought back in the second half, even if the end didn’t play out exactly as a real underdog story would have.
The close final leaves plenty of room for second guessing, including why they stuck with a patently flawed lineup for so long. What’s more, neither big took a shot in that entire stretch of play, and if they’re not out there for offense, what are they out there for?
The starting lineup is getting outscored by one point per-100 possessions (PPC) on the year, and while the Scola-Valanciunas pairing itself has been better (plus-7.7 PPC), it’s a match-up-dependent look if there’s ever been one. The mobility is a concern, enough that most assumed Patrick Patterson would be the team’s starting power forward. When they’re not hammering the glass, one thing this pair does very well, stops may be hard to come by.
Having said all of that, this is not a cause to call for Casey’s removal. Not even close. I’m generally more positive about Casey than most around these parts, but even if I were to change my mind in that regard, over-reacting to flaws most expected entering the year during the season’s opening 12 games would be obtuse. The Raptors are 7-5 against one of the tougher schedules so far, rank seventh in offensive efficiency, and have been a shade better than average on defense. They’re playing well, mostly.
Plus, ESPN’s Kevin Pelton has found that teams that were expected to be .500 or better have not noticed a positive boost from a mid-season coaching change once correcting for likely regression closer to expected performance. As Pelton writes:
In fact, as a group these eight teams won less than expected based on their point differential and preseason lines the remainder of the season. That’s not to say midseason coaching changes can never work. Under P.J. Carlesimo, the 2012-13 Nets played much better in the second half of the season, and the 2005-06 Heat will understandably point to the championship they won after Pat Riley replaced Stan Van Gundy rather than the team’s record. Still, midseason coaching changes are hardly the slam dunk they might appear because teams tend to play up to their preseason expectations.
Considering the coaching candidates available were deemed not worthy of making a change for this offseason, it doesn’t seem likely that general manager Masai Ujiri will pull the plug on Casey any time soon. And he shouldn’t – Casey is fine, the team is playing fairly well, and I’m not a big believer in making a mid-season change behind the bench unless there’s either a clear successor or demonstrable evidence of a coach having lost the players.
To be frank, I think a lot of people jump to yell “FIRE CASEY” way too quickly and too often, overestimating the impact a coach has over results. Coaching is obviously very important and there are clear areas Casey can improve in, but the constant talk of firing a coach of a good team who doesn’t seem close to being fired is growing tiresome.
Other lineup notes
*Out of necessity, Casey experimented with a few lineups without a center on Tuesday, ones I’d like to get a longer look at when match-ups allow. Scola and Patterson are no Draymond Green, but with DeMarre Carroll’s ability to play the four, the Raptors might be able to survive without a traditional center if the match-up is unfavorable for Valanciunas.
Those looks weren’t awesome Tuesday – I have center-less groups down as a net-even in 10 minutes – but they were serviceable. The Raptors have played 30 minutes this season without Valanciunas, Bismack Biyombo, or Bebe Nogueira on the court, and the team has played those minutes to a draw, too. Some of those include two power forwards, but the point remains that center-less looks are worth investigating further.
Getting comfortable with this style could prove useful later in the year and unlock some additional flexibility if Valanciunas were to ever miss time.
*The team’s closing unit continues to be terrific. The starters with Cory Joseph in place of Scola outscored the Warriors by three points over six minutes Tuesday, despite shooting 2-of-9 from the floor. They’re a sharp defensive look, they get to the line like crazy, and they’re one of the only units where the Raptors maintain strong floor balance.
For the season, the Lowry-Joseph-DeRozan-Carroll-Valanciunas group has destroyed opponents by 27.6 points per-100 possessions in 33 minutes. It’s awesome.
*The impact of that group can be narrowed even more tightly to focus on the Lowry-Joseph duo. They’ve found a very quick chemistry at both ends of the floor, with Lowry moving into scorer mode as the two-guard on offense and Joseph capable of handling the bigger guard at the other end.
The Raptors have outscored opponents by 11 PPC in their 154 minutes together, and the Raptors edged Golden State by one over the 19 minutes they shared the floor Tuesday.
