The Toronto Raptors just can’t play a normal game of basketball against the Miami Heat. They started out trying their best to play a casual, lackadaisical game of hoops, but it was not to be. Midway through the third quarter, Christian Koloko snatched an offensive rebound and was pushed to the ground by Miami’s Caleb Martin. Martin glowered over Koloko, who stood up quickly. Martin responded by tackling the rookie to the ground, and both players received ejected for their efforts. From that point forward, the game became extremely physical. Another ho-hum entry into Toronto’s bizarre catalogue of games against the Heat.
Unlike the fight, one of the more expectable components of Toronto’s performance was the output of its starting group. Against the Cleveland Cavaliers, the fivesome of Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent jr., O.G. Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, and Pascal Siakam won its 15 minutes by a marvelous 13 points. They shot 5-of-8 from deep and altogether stymied the Cavaliers on the defensive end, forcing turnovers and limiting Cleveland’s quirky guards from finding too many seams.
Then against the Brooklyn Nets, even though four of Toronto’s five starters finished with a positive plus-minus, (Trent was the lone exception), the group lost its 21 minutes by five points. The inability of any non-VanVleet to supplement Siakam’s scoring, combined with a real change in its defensive attention to detail, made the fivesome look completely different. Unfortunately, they have looked pedestrian all too often.
Which brings us to the job of Toronto’s starters against the Heat.
In just the first five minutes of the game, Toronto’s starters spotted a four-point lead to the Heat before Precious Achiuwa entered the game for Trent. The Heat hit three in-rhythm triples, as Toronto’s defense failed to use its rotations and manic energy to force Miami’s players out of their preferred timing and into unfamiliar territory.
Nick Nurse has consistently acknowledged the controversy around Toronto’s starting lineup, admitting that people seem to really care about it. And for good reason: Among Toronto’s five groups with 200 or more possessions last season, its incumbent starters ranked fourth. The group ranked 11th out of the 15 most-used lineups across the league in terms of scoring differential per 100 possessions. They weren’t that great! The other conceivable options — with one of Achiuwa or even Chris Boucher subbing in for Trent or Barnes or even Anunoby — were significantly more effective.
Even though Toronto’s starters were solid at forcing turnovers, they didn’t force a whole lot of misses, didn’t rebound after they did, and had a bad habit of fouling to boot. This was the case against Miami, as the starters lost their total minutes by five points because they couldn’t get a stop. And with all of VanVleet, Siakam, and Anunoby on the floor, the Raptors should be able to force misses from their opponents. Those are three of the best defenders in the league. Anunoby proved he could handle Jimmy Butler in isolation towards the end of Miami, but he had precious few chances. VanVleet puts opposing guards in shackles. Yet without a traditional big, Toronto’s starters have to nail the details to string together stops. When it works, it works great. But it’s hard to make it work. There are easier options, with higher performance floors.
With the two stars, VanVleet and Siakam, on the floor together without Achiuwa during 2021-22 and 2022-23, Toronto’s net rating has been a modest +3.02. With Achiuwa, that balloons to +8.43. None of Trent, Barnes, or Anunoby help the stars to the same statistical extent. Achiuwa had a difficult first two games to start the season, but he decidedly outplayed All-Star Bam Adebayo in game three.
Unfortunately, the Raptors are about to get plenty of chances with a new starting lineup. Nurse expects Barnes to be out, per beat writers on the road with the team, after injuring his ankle against the Heat. While the Raptors were incredible with Achiuwa in place of Barnes last season alongside the other four starters, recording a per-100-possessions point differential of +14.5, Nurse started Koloko in the second half against the Heat. That group was outscored by a single point to start the third quarter, but after Achiuwa replaced Koloko, the Raptors began to cut into the lead. When the dust settled, the starters with Achiuwa in place of Barnes won their 11 minutes by a gargantuan 18 points. It helps that Achiuwa was hitting triples, attacking successfully off the dribble, and forcing stops and grabbing rebounds. With his enormous strength and grace, he brings a big-man presence (with wing skills) that the starters lack, despite all the power forwards already in the lineup. There’s a reason the starters are all so much better with Achiuwa on the floor. They’re about to experience the benefits a whole lot more often if Barnes misses real time.
Having “six starters” with Achiuwa joining the traditional five is less of a problem than one might think, especially because injuries always mean there’s extra opportunity to play. Still, decisions eventually have to be made.
Just over a week ago, our own Mikai Bruce argued that Achiuwa should replace Trent in the starting lineup. What has changed since then? Both a fair amount and nothing at all. On one hand, Toronto’s starters rarely put together such dominant games in all of 2021-22 as they did against the Cavaliers. Winning starter minutes by 13 points is a gigantic advantage. Toronto has been below-average with five starters in the game since 2019-20, and it’s a slog trying to dig out of early holes game after game. (That, more than anything, contributes to the unfair moniker of “fake comebacks.”) We’ve learned that the Raptors could be dominant with the usual starters. And not coincidentally, that Cleveland game is the only one the Raptors have won so far. Making that performance replicable would hugely benefit the Raptors
But we’ve also learned that seeing such domination out of the gate is likely a rarity against other playoff teams. The Nets and Heat scored with ease against Toronto until the bench players hit the floor. That weakness, unfortunately, we already knew as replicable.
Perhaps the Raptors are at their best with Trent starting; that group could have highest ceiling. But too often it has been defined by its floor. Unless it can consistently retain focus and nail the details, that group may be less than the sum of its parts. There’s no need to make the game harder than it already is, and demanding defensive perfection is harder than simply playing a center and forcing misses — and grabbing rebounds.
The Raptors have time to make decisions. They may be 1-2 on the season, but they’ve faced excellent competition, so pressure isn’t ramping up yet. Furthermore, the starting lineup can’t change properly until everyone is healthy. But eventually, the choice will matter once again. Achiuwa is digging his way out of Nurse’s doghouse in which he possibly found himself after his first two games. If he plays any more games like he had against Miami, he may be difficult to dislodge from the starting lineup even after injuries make the decisions for Nurse.
