Welcome to part two of this year’s draft coverage. Introductions to this year’s draft can be found here and here. If you missed the previous piece on Kobe Bufkin, be sure to check that out as well.
Today we’re going to discuss yet another one of my personal favourite prospects in the class: the SEC All-Freshman, Cason Wallace. A defensive-minded guard from Kentucky with an underrated (albeit still developing) offensive game.
Wallace reportedly cancelled future draft workouts after working out for Toronto and Washington, meaning he’s definitely in play for the 13th pick, and I strongly believe he is the best option there if he falls.
Offence
Wallace started the year in a more off-ball role, and his efficiency was actually quite encouraging at this point in the season. Up until he moved into the starting role, Wallace averaged 42% from deep on 5 attempts per game. It was only after he moved into the starting role, suffered some back spasms, and opposing teams started to gameplan for him, that his efficiency from range came back to earth. I don’t have many concerns with his shot once he’s actually healthy, however. Mechanically, it’s sound, and he has a quick release.
He’s also very quick to get up off the catch.
Prior to becoming the starting point guard, Kentucky’s offence was rather underwhelming, but as soon as Wallace was given the green light, everything started to trend in a more positive direction.
I don’t think his handle is that bad at all. It’s not elite, but Wallace is calm under pressure and has a good enough handle that he can control and create rather effectively.
I’ve seen the critique of Wallace that he’s not a real point guard, and I agree that he should start his career in more of an off-ball combo guard role. He’s in fact great at relocating and getting open without the ball.
That said, I think his playmaking is being absolutely slept on whenever this point is raised.
Boasting a 2.03 AST/TO ratio, Wallace shows that he can take care of the ball. Assist numbers are a little on the lower end for a player who would ideally play point at the next level, but I think they’re encouraging enough where teams can project him as a positive playmaker.
He operates quite well in the pick and roll, and he had a good rolling partner in Oscar Tshiebwe at Kentucky, so that should translate well to the NBA.
It’ll be the job of the team that takes him to continue to develop him as a playmaker in other areas. Even if he doesn’t fully project to a primary playmaker in the league, he’ll make sure that the ball stays moving if he doesn’t have a good look, and he has his moments of outstanding court vision.
Due to his soft touch and occasional bursts of athleticism, he’s an exceptional finisher at the rim (70%!), and a large chunk of those makes came in the halfcourt.
Wallace is also one of the better scorers in the draft from the mid-range, which I find sets him apart from your traditional “defensive guard with questionable scoring upside” prospects. Very, very few of his attempts from the midrange came off an assist.
Wallace made about 40% of his non-paint two point shots, but only about 8% of those makes were assisted. His ability to stop on a dime and get a shot up helped provide a spark when Kentucky often needed one.
Wallace’s floater is also a well-developed weapon in his arsenal that scouts have been raving about. Raptors fans have been wanting a guard with a reliable floater for years, so look no further than Wallace, who is already fairly elite at it.
He also possesses a high free throw percentage. These factors, alongside his good shooting form, give me a lot of optimism that his offensive concerns are largely overstated.
Defence
Look at this possession where he defends one player from the point of attack, before sprinting off-ball to deflect a pass out of bounds.
It’s nuts.
6’4 with a 6’8.5 wingspan means Wallace can body up on bigger players while also wreaking havoc on the perimeter with his long arms and quick hands.
His stance is low and wide, and despite his 195lb frame, he’s as strong as an ox and can withstand contact from most bigger opponents. His footwork is also excellent, and he’s always moving to the right spots when rotating.
Boasting a 1.7% block rate and 3.7% steal rate, Wallace is both highly intelligent and efficient as a defender. When evaluating his defence at the point of attack, he’s genuinely one of the most impressive prospects in years. The pressure he’s able to exert on ball handlers without fouling is nothing short of elite, and certainly beyond the skillset expected of a college player.
Wallace is also able to fight through or get over screens with relative ease, and his ability to stick with his man is second to none thanks to his footwork and general quickness. He’s a great help defender, and even on the rare sequences when he gets caught out of position, he’s quick to recover.
He can also sky in for the occasional chasedown block thanks to his long arms.
These aren’t your Fred Vanvleet downward swipes that get called as blocks even though they should actually be credited as steals either. Wallace can swat it.
Just for fun, here’s a clip of him denying Bufkin.
I think it’s a fair assessment to label him as the second best defender in the class (behind the obvious number 1 in Wembanyama).
Areas of Improvement
The idea of Wallace fitting into a primary creation role seems a little far away at this point. While his in-between game is excellent, the not-so-great burst and the good-but-not-great handle are major hindrances towards developing his game as a scoring option. It may be best for him if he’s also paired with a better playmaker at the start of his career, but it may also not be the worst thing for his development to be thrown into the fire as a bench lineup’s primary playmaking presence.
Wallace’s three point shooting could stand to improve, but I’m not as concerned here because I think his shot is actually quite good, and his efficiency was better in a secondary role. He’s got a quick and fluid release. Getting comfortable with increasing the volume and working on expanding his pull-up game beyond the arc should be the next step in developing his shooting.
More of this would be great:
It’s likely his burst is what it is at this point, but he can help mitigate the concerns with his first step by continuing to develop his ball-handling. Becoming a craftier player will help him get to the rim more easily, where he’s effective.
Wallace has a very high floor, so a lot of these critiques may seem shallow, but they’ll be what determines if his career path more closely mirrors a high-end rotation player or an all star. His offence is much better than some would have you believe.
Role on the Raptors
You want guard depth?
Ideally, Wallace grows into that point guard role. He had several excellent games for Kentucky when asked to run the show, but right now he’s more likely to fill in as more of a combo guard. I understand the desire to select a point guard in this draft, but many have to understand that after Scoot Henderson and Amen Thompson, the pure point guard talent in this draft class is barren.
If he can take over at the point after a couple years of development, great. If not, great, you still have a fantastic guard who can fit with the starters or the bench depending on what the makeup of the team looks like after free agency. Coming off the bench and running that secondary unit could be useful experience to develop his playmaking skills and groom him for that starting role in a couple years when he’s ready. In the mean time, you have a player who is comfortable being a connective presence, capable of making smart plays, and getting to his spots.
Wallace’s defensive fit will be flawless on any lineup the Raptors want to run as he can reasonably be expected to defend 1-3, and do it well.
Brendan’s Assessment
Cason Wallace is 5th overall on my big board.
I understand that I’m higher than most on the Kentucky freshman, but Wallace has one of the highest floors in the draft. Not only that, but I firmly believe that after Wembanyama, Henderson, Miller, and Amen Thompson, Wallace has one of the highest ceilings. After the top 3 or so prospects, the talent disparity in the lottery gets much more compact. The remaining players, even at the higher end, start to have glaring weaknesses, and Wallace is just a safe bet to have a long and productive NBA career. The defence is already elite, he’s only 19 years old with a very good physical profile. His offence, while a work in progress, is still much more developed than many other prospects in the middle range of the lottery. In essence, he’s a complete package.
Quick and smart decision making on both offence and defence, playmaking chops, flashes of upside when it comes to self creation, elite efficiency at the rim from a guard, mid-range scoring ability, Cason has a lot of strengths that have been absent from the skillsets of the Raptors roster in recent years. I think it would be foolish to pass that kind of prospect up if they had the chance to draft him. Plus, the list of Calipari products who overperform their offensive projections in the NBA is just… a lot of very good players. History is on his side.
Trust me. If you don’t trust me, trust Cason Wallace. He is the guy.
