Crafty, agile bucket getter – The Raptors have been starved for this kind of player for… years. Is it Bub’s turn to take the reins?
Be sure to also check out the previous reports in the series starting with Zach Edey.
Carlton “Bub” Carrington | 6’5 Guard | Pittsburgh | 18 years old
The Intro
It’s not unusual for an 18 year old with advanced control and craft over his dribble and shot-making ability to be highly regarded, especially for a class such as this where teams will be desperate for any kind of talent flashes.
After dropping a triple double in his first college appearance, Bub quickly caught the attention of NBA scouts and solidified himself as a first round name in the class. His weaknesses became more readily apparent as the season went on, but the potential of an off-the-dribble shot creator in a 6’5 frame at such a young age still has NBA front offices licking their chops to have a shot at selecting the shifty guard from Pitt.
The Offence
The efficiency isn’t exactly what you’d want to see from a player like Bub who takes jumpshots so often. The volume is encouraging, and he takes such a large amount of difficult shots, shots off the dribble, and shots in traffic, that you have to come away still feeling impressed with what he’s capable of doing at only 18 years old. To have such an advanced creation ability before even setting foot on an NBA court speaks volumes to what his ceiling could be.
If asked to reduce his role, I don’t think it would be out of the question that his efficiency would increase. The only question is if he can continue developing on a positive upward trend, or is he going to go the way of the “settle for jumpshots and chuck his team out of games” development path. If teams feel that he’s more likely to fall into the latter category, I wouldn’t be surprised to see his stock fall on draft night.
His passing, like his handle, is creative. At over double assist to turnover ratio, Bub has shown promising flashes of being a lead playmaker for Pitt. His passes can have that fun-to-watch flair while still being accurate, and Bub isn’t one to make careless turnovers. Bub also thrives on getting his teammates involved.
Back to his handle, Carrington is one of the shiftiest, craftiest dribblers in the class. His handle is tight, and he utilizes his combination of speed and control to make some pretty stepback shots.
One of the more promising midrange scorers in the class, Bub can stop on a dime after a dribble move and send it up. It’s not a stretch to say he could expand his game outside to the perimeter to become even deadlier off the dribble. His burst and first step are both underwhelming, however, and he has to rely on shifty dribble moves to get shots off. If he can keep that up at the next level, great, if not, he might not be sticking around that long.
Bub’s weaker physical strength remains a problem for him when driving to the rim. Because of it, he doesn’t generate very much pressure on the interior and is often forced to settle for jumpers. Adding to his strength and developing a more advanced offensive repertoire on the interior could catapult him into a star potential prospect, but it’s also something that’s difficult to see him improving very much on due to his skinnier frame and apparent fear of driving inside. While he’s a shifty perimeter player, he’s still a below-the-rim finisher with not a lot of interior moves. It’s this part of his game that results in many scouts being a little lower on Bub.
At about a 27th percentile finisher at the rim (50.9% on the season), it’s looking bleak for Bub’s potential as an on-ball star. I think Raptors fans would be within their rights to riot if forced to watch another 8 years of Fred VanVleet level rim finishing. It’s not even just about finishing at the rim either, Bub hardly goes there. Only drawing just under 3 free throw attempts per game. Compared to other guards of a similar archetype in the class (Collier, Carter, Walter), Bub lags behind fairly significantly.
The Defence
6’5 with a 6’8 wingspan, Carrington has intriguing size for a modern NBA point guard. His size hasn’t translated to stellar defence, but the measurements are at least something to be optimistic about. Again, strength is an issue. Bub can be pushed around by smaller players if they have a couple pounds on him. Eat your chicken and rice, Bub.
He wasn’t tasked with being a defender at Pitt and his lack of defensive production speaks to that. I think he can play with effort when he wants to, and his wingspan should at least let him poke at passing lanes and get deflections. The only question is whether or not he’s going to want to do that at the next level. If he wants to get minutes, he’s going to have to.
Averaging over 5 rebounds per game with the occasional 10-board tease, the plus rebounding is a nice asset to have from your point guard.
Brendan’s Take
The front office’s messaging has consistently been “we want to compete again with Scottie at the helm sooner than later”. To me, this signals a desire to draft and develop players with more NBA ready profiles. I don’t think Bub would fit that description, but I’ve been surprised by the front office’s inconsistencies before.
I see the vision with what Bub can be, but it’ll take a few years for him to get there. If the team wants to give him limited run off the bench to help ease him along behind Immanuel Quickley, I could get behind that. If they want him to come in and run dual guard lineups and replace Gary Trent, I think that could get messy fairly quickly too just due to Bub’s tendencies as an on-ball player. These are quirks that can be mended with the right coaching, but it’s something to keep in mind.
While his range projects to be anywhere from mid teens to mid 20’s, I have Carrington in the early 20’s on my board. I think the lack of rim pressure is a pretty big concern for a lead guard. Teams can gameplan around him and force him to settle for tough jumpers which will mitigate his game pretty significantly. If he wants to hit his ceiling, he’s going to need to focus on developing that aspect fairly religiously. Otherwise, you have a fun backup guard who may play himself out of the league due to his predictability when it comes to settling for jumpers. I would be a fan of the pick if for nothing else, Bub has potential and is fun to watch. But I would caution that there will be numerous growing pains along the way.
This is the last of the individual prospect scouting reports I plan on doing for this cycle, but I’ll be putting out another piece early this coming week before the draft briefly covering some prospects we didn’t have time for — as well as some general draft-related musings and final thoughts. If you’d like to see me talk about anything or anyone in particular, maybe leave a comment below?
