We’ll be saving the full in-depth analysis of these players for after the season, but feel free to use this as a nice sneak-peak of some of the more interesting prospects in this class who could find themselves in Toronto next year.
The Importance of Being Unimportant
A quick flashback to the Wembanyama draft brings back some painful memories and lessons learned in asset management. Despite it being obvious to everyone with eyes that the Raptors were not competitive and held a worse record than the eventual team picking third in that draft, they opted to sell a very poorly protected future lottery pick, grab Jakob Poeltl, and make an uninspired run at barely .500 basketball.
The impact of acquiring Brandon Ingram remains to be seen. As it stands now, acquiring an all star level player for relatively cheap seems to be a quality move. The goal remains the same this season: keep the draft at the forefront of our priorities. Ingram is sitting out with an injury and it’s unlikely he’ll impact the Raptors’ win total this year.
Even with Ingram’s addition, the Raptors still need talent. They aren’t a free agency destination, and they don’t really have the assets to swing a trade for a true superstar unless other front offices feel like pulling a Nico Harrison and trading their top 5 players for pennies.
That leaves us with this draft. As of now, the Raps are positioned in the top 5 of a very good class. Bringing in a high pick in a stacked class combined with a healthy Brandon Ingram could quickly change Toronto’s fortunes in the not-so-distant future. It’s important to be unimportant for the rest of the season.
The Top Tier: Cooper Flagg
Any conversations of other players being the top pick in this class have been put to bed. There’s been some silly talk about the word ‘generational’ too. I don’t believe any serious scout would use that word with Flagg in the same way it was used for Wembanyama or LeBron. Instead it feels more like some people got a bit too carried away with the hype, spread that word around, and now there’s people out there trying to take away from Flagg’s game because he’s not fitting in that ‘generational’ description.
Again, silly talk, because he’s still one of the best prospects to come into the league in the last 20 years. Let’s look at some stats:
One of the best players in the entire NCAA on both ends of the floor. Despite just turning 18 on December 21st, Flagg has been a frontrunner for the National Player of the Year (alongside Auburn senior Johni Broome) and Defensive Player of the Year. While there were some early concerns about his shot, he seems to have turned a corner and continues to convincingly showcase his ability to score from anywhere on the court.
Setting the all-time ACC freshman scoring record with a 42 bomb against Notre Dame ain’t nothing to sneeze at either:
Flagg’s drawn some comparisons to Pascal Siakam and Scottie Barnes, and it’s understandable to an extent. But aside from being an athletic, playmaking-oriented, 6’9, defensive all-rounder, Cooper sets himself apart from both players simply due to how accomplished he is while being so young. Neither Scottie nor Pascal were anywhere close to this polished on both sides of the floor at 17-18 years old, and neither projected to have Cooper’s growing repertoire of offensive abilities or range from beyond the arc. For the advanced stats nerds, Flagg is a resounding positive in every metric.
In terms of fit on the Raptors: Flagg is perfect. He can be slotted alongside Scottie and Ingram next season, becoming a smothering defensive presence the team has so badly missed since trading away OG Anunoby. As an upper end outcome, there’s a chance he can develop into the first option scorer the team has been craving since the departure of Kawhi Leonard.
It’s fun to fantasize. A lot still has to go right for the ping pong balls to fall in the Raptors’ favour, but Flagg is very much a possibility if the Raptors continue to go down the path of the rebuild.
Tier 2: Dylan Harper
Dylan Harper has more or less separated himself from the rest of the top prospects while still remaining comfortably behind Flagg. Are there GMs out there who would pick one of the following three prospects over Harper? Probably, but I don’t think that would be a very common decision based on what they’ve all shown so far.
Harper’s ability to get to the rim is truly outstanding. He doesn’t dunk that often but he’s so effective at absorbing contact and contorting his body to finish that it almost doesn’t matter. The rest of his offensive game has come down to earth somewhat compared to earlier in the year, but Harper’s shown enough flashes to give teams confidence in his development as a scorer. The three point shooting is a bit of a concern, and his midrange leaves much to be desired.
Harper’s a big guard, but there’s some questions surrounding his ability to be a true floor general. He’s had some solid performances as the primary playmaker at Rutgers but it’s going to be something to keep an eye on as the season progresses. Would like to see him control his turnovers a bit more as well, though that seems to be trending in a good direction. His size also provides a bit of optimism for his future as a defender, though he’s been weak in that area.
The fit on the Raptors is very good, though not as seamless as Flagg. Picking Harper would open up the option of making Immanuel Quickley expendable. I wouldn’t be crazy about playing the two of them in the backcourt together because they both play a similar role, and the defence will likely continue to be an issue, but the additional high-value asset is never a bad thing to have while they sort out the ultimate fit.
Having a big, high IQ guard in the pipeline as the Raptors set up their future is something everybody should look forward to.
Tier 3: Ace Bailey, Kasparas Jakucionis, VJ Edgecombe
These three round out what is shaping up to be the consensus top 5 in scouting communities.
Ace has been the typical “third name” behind Flagg and Harper, and he’s been a sexy pick for teams desiring a scoring option. That’s basically his entire game.
My opinion on Ace has gone up and down. He’s gone anywhere from 2nd to 6th on my personal big board and I still haven’t pinned down where he’ll settle. His natural scoring talent obviously can’t be denied, and his shooting seems to have normalized around the 36% mark from deep. The problem with Ace is that if he’s not getting you high-volume looks, it’s not entirely clear what his role is on the floor. Despite his size, his defence has been very unimpressive, and he’s allergic to passing the basketball. That AST/TO is pretty much inexcusable.
Ace is a talented tough shot maker, but you have to wonder if he’ll continue to make those tough shots against NBA defences or if he needs to start focusing on ways to diversify his offence and make his game easier for himself rather than settling for contested looks. It’s something to keep in mind whenever his name comes up in draft talks.
I like his fit on the Raptors from a scoring perspective. Pairing him next to Scottie and Ingram should give the team multiple weapons to work with. He doesn’t fix any issues for the team on defence, and some guys on the team like Scottie might have to start sacrificing their own looks in order to maximize Ace’s skillset, because he absolutely does not project as an off-ball player.
Kasparas Jakucionis has been a very pleasant surprise for Illinois.
The most natural lead guard in the class, KJ’s blend of high IQ playmaking, scoring finesse, and overall efficiency will make him an appealing option in the top 5. His lateral quickness is a bit of a concern on defence, but he’s one of those players who can make a defensive impact with his awareness and intelligence rather than his athleticism. I wouldn’t write him off as a negative defender at all.
The turnovers will undoubtedly have to get under control if KJ is to have a long career as a floor general. Sometimes his fantastic court vision gets ahead of his decision making and he can make mistakes. If KJ is given some freedom to work through his mistakes and starts working within the flow of an offence, the team that drafts him is going to be very pleased with his output as a playmaker.
A remarkable 0% of his shots in the mid range are assisted, showing some optimism in KJ’s potential to score at all three levels, even if the percentages don’t pop off the page just yet.
KJ’s fit on the Raptors is a bit easier than Ace and Harper, even if his ceiling may be a bit lower. As a playmaking guard with scoring upside, he fits a little easier in the backcourt with both Quickley and Gradey, and should serve as a nice facilitating presence for BI and Scottie, assuming he can get his turnovers under control. In a ball movement offence, KJ would fit seamlessly.
I have done a complete 180 in my opinion on VJ Edgecombe. Early in the year, he wasn’t really providing any proof that he belonged in top 5 discussions beyond being an explosive athlete and high level defender. Since the end of December, that’s changed for the better. His shot’s coming around and he’s been able to show more of what he’s capable of offensively. His mechanics are fairly consistent and he has a high release point, so I have faith he’ll continue to improve as a shooter.
Edgecombe defends well above his size despite being 6’5 and weighing in at 180lb. His elite athleticism combined with his effort and thirst to shut down opposing players makes him a formidable force, posting a 4.1 STL% and 2.9 BLK%. He’ll be a little undersized as a primary wing defender in the NBA, but the team that selects him has to have faith that his defensive ability will shine through and he’ll put on some weight.
He’s had an upward trend as a playmaker as the year’s gone on though it wouldn’t be a selling point for his game. His handle can be a bit awkward and his left hand is still quite underdeveloped. Despite shooting 62.5% at the rim, he shoots under 50% at the rim in the half court, which is concerning if you’re expecting him to develop into a reliable scoring option.
If VJ keeps doing what he’s been doing, I wouldn’t be surprised if he enters conversations for the 2nd pick with Dylan Harper.
I like VJ’s fit in Toronto a lot, but his inclusion would naturally impact Gradey and Ja’Kobe, unfortunately, as the Raptors are starting to get a bit of a developmental logjam at the 2. Regardless the Raptors aren’t in a position where they should be considering fit over talent.
He’s so impressive on defence that I believe he’ll be able to play the 3 if he gains some size… but that defensive intensity and versatility nonetheless fills arguably the biggest need for the Raptors.
Plus, he’s just one of the most explosive dunkers in the game, and it’s been a minute since the Raptors had one of those:
Names in the 6-10 Range
The reason why I think it’s important to emphasize the depth of talent in the top 5 is because the talent falls off a bit after. It’s still a deep class, but people often interpret that as the class being rich with star talent throughout. In reality once we go past the top 5 we’re venturing away from the stars into ‘solid starter upside’ territory. Given the kind of season the Raptors have had, falling into this range would be a massive disappointment and a detriment to the rebuild considering the season they’re having.
Jeremiah Fears of Oklahoma has been an early season riser and now projects to be picked in the top 10. A shifty lead guard with an impressive handle, lighting quick twitchy reflexes, and high three level scoring ability, Fears is also only 2 months younger than Cooper Flagg. His concerning 3.7 turnovers per game are very high considering he only averages 3.8 assists. Fears has the tools to compete on the defensive end but needs to improve his decision making if he’s going to stay on the floor. At 6’4, Fears is a solid height for a PG and should be a solid get in this range. Patience will be required in order to reap the benefits of his potential.
Khaman Maluach, Flagg’s big man teammate at Duke, has been a pretty polarizing prospect. While flashing some high potential in the 2024 Olympics for South Sudan, he’s been a little underwhelming at Duke. An impressive athlete and being 7’2 makes him appealing from a raw measurables perspective. He has shown moments of brilliance, including defending the perimeter which is rare for a player of his size. In spite of that, watching him closely reveals a litany of poor defensive mistakes, and he doesn’t provide much on offence either. Maluach is definitely an upside swing, but it’s important to note that raw bigs are not typically selected in the lottery, and those that are do not have a very strong track record of success. He fills a positional need for Toronto, but it will likely be a few years before he’s a consistent contributor.
Texas’ Tre Johnson is another high level scoring wing. At 6’6, he’s got decent positional size and has showcased a wide bag of moves that help him score the ball. His efficiency overall is okay but not great. His form and control he has scoring the ball in contested situations project well for his role in the NBA. The question marks with Tre are similar to the concerns with Bailey. Tre is a poor defender, and doesn’t really project to be much of a defender at the next level at all, which will likely keep him firmly in the tier below Bailey for those interested in comparing the two scoring prospects. Tre also doesn’t do much passing, and the only times he operates off the ball is if he’s waiting to catch-and-shoot the three. I wouldn’t be super big on adding Tre to Toronto’s growing stable of subpar defensive wings, but it may have to come down to it if Toronto’s picking in this range.
Asa Newell, the dynamic and athletic forward from Georgia, has been an entertaining watch this season. He’s a bit of a tweener, has the size of a 4 while operating mostly like a 5 on offence. He’s definitely a complimentary piece, as he mostly works off-ball heading towards the rim to either score, rebound, or block a shot. I wouldn’t expect him to create for himself much outside of the post. Newell’s flashed a three point shot on occasion but it’s still a long ways away from being a part of his regular arsenal. Newell’s defence is solid, and he really gives a damn which is encouraging from a young player. He’s effective as a help defender protecting the weak side of the rim, and he switches well on the perimeter. He’s still prone to some simple mistakes and it remains to be seen if he can be a true rim deterrent in the NBA. His fit in Toronto is a bit iffy, as it would involve bringing in another weak shooter to play alongside Scottie and potentially crowd the paint. Off the bench he would likely thrive, assuming Chris Boucher leaves in the offseason.
A teammate of Flagg and Maluach, Kon Knueppel is someone else who has improved as the season’s gone on. More of a complimentary scorer, but Kon can do it at all three levels. Good size at 6’7, but a poor athlete and questionable defender will likely limit how high he goes in this class. Again, we’re picking for talent over fit here, but the fit still isn’t the best on a team with Gradey Dick and Ja’Kobe Walter.
There are of course plenty of other risers (Derik Queen of Maryland, Jase Richardson from Michigan State, and Noa Essengue from France, for example) who could make an argument to be picked here. Worry not, we’ll have plenty of focus on them as the season nears its end.
The great thing about a deep draft class is that there are plenty of players who project to be NBA-ready in the early 2nd round, where Toronto has Portland’s pick hiding in wait. Going for a high level swing with their first rounder makes it a bit easier to be a little more safe and pick someone who can contribute right away, maybe fill a positional hole. A name I like here right now is Creighton’s Ryan Kalkbrenner, who I’ve had ranked as a first round prospect for the last couple years. An elite rim protector (2.8bpg) who can also space the floor at a clip of 44% on just over an attempt per game, and dropped 49 points in his opening night performance this season.
We’ll highlight more second round prospects as we get closer to the draft. This class is quite thin on talent at the centre position, so if you’re a Raptors fan in dire need of a big man prospect to follow, look no further.
Ultimately, this draft has been quite exciting to follow so far. With the Raptors trying to work their way into a top 5 pick, the stakes have never been so high. Landing in the top 5 and picking wisely could accelerate their rebuild, launching the team back into the playoffs as soon as next year. There are a handful of potential franchise cornerstones in this class which would set the Raptors up for the better part of a decade. Falling down the draft order and potentially taking a project or someone with a lower ceiling? Raps fans might have to be patient and wait a bit longer.
