Ahh, we’re almost done this year’s draft coverage. If you’re curious, please check out all the previous entries in the series, listed here:
Kobe Bufkin
Cason Wallace
Keyonte George
Gradey Dick & Jordan Hawkins
Dariq Whitehead and Brice Sensabaugh
We also have a draft roundtable coming tomorrow! Stay tuned for that.
I’ve seen a few of the featured names of this report pop up a lot recently in Raptors discussions, and I understand why. Bilal Coulibaly is the international project pick with an insane physical profile. One of the youngest players in the class posting some impressive statlines in the Euroleague playoffs. A lot of people can get attached to the idea of “potential”, and players like Coulibaly are seen as the sexy pick for those who want to take a chance on upside.
Nick Smith Jr, a projected top 5 pick before his unceremonious fall from grace due to a knee injury and a very statistically poor season at Arkansas. He still has that reputation as a scoring guard from his high school days, and he fills a positional need for Toronto. As a 6’5 shot-creating guard, he could be a good value pick if you believe that his struggles were mostly due to his injury.
Jalen Hood-Schifino is a big point-guard who played for a solid Indiana team. JHS is one of the more Raptors-y picks in the draft, as he’s 6’6 with a 6’10 wingspan and made his living as a gritty defender with a well-developed mid-range game.
The problem with all of these players is that there’s a lot of misinformation about their games going around at this time of year. People watch highlights and get carried away with things that may or may not be true. Well, let’s evaluate the three of them individually and see what we find, shall we?
Bilal Coulibaly – G/F, Boulogne-Levallois
An asterisk on Bilal’s stats, before we begin. It appears Tankathon averaged out his production across both the top French league (where he played with Victor Wembanyama) and the U21 league, where Bilal obviously played against worse competition.
Averaging 32.6 minutes per game across 16 games in the U21 league, Bilal averaged: 21.9 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.2 blocks, 2.6 steals, and 2.8 turnovers on 53/32/76 percentages. Bilal was in a featured role on this team and played against other players who were younger than 21 years of age.
In 20.2 minutes per game across 38 games in the top French league, Bilal averaged: 5.9 points, 3 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.2 blocks, 0.9 steals, and 1 turnover on 52/36/62 shooting percentages. Bilal was in a complimentary role on this team, coming off the bench in half of his games, and only averaged a touch under 4 shots from the field and only 1 attempt from deep per game.
Anyway, keep this in mind as we dive into Bilal as a prospect, because I feel as though those stats have been somewhat misrepresented in the recent buzz around him.
Offence
Bilal is great at finishing plays in transition. In the NBA, if he lands on a team that generates a lot of turnovers, expect him to get out and running as soon as the ball gets loose. Quite good at finishing at the rim, which is a big reason for his higher fg%, both in transition and in the half-court. Some putbacks as well.
Very smart at relocating off ball and cutting to the basket, and has encouraging finishing ability with both hands.
I think his dribble can be a little high and loose at times, but his experience as a handler is still noteworthy given his age. Lots of reps driving in to the rim, and took advantage of open lanes when presented to him.
I like his burst. If he can get his handle under control, he could be used as a means of getting an easy shot within 5 feet. The athleticism is quite impressive, explosive of one or two feet when dunking at the rim in transition and in the half-court.
Encouraging signs on the jumpshot. I think there are still a few issues with it mechanically, but the fact that he’s taking just under 2 long-range attempts per game with some confidence means there’s something workable there.
Bilal also showcased some encouraging decision making skills and flashes of playmaking upside, particularly with the U21 team.
Defence
This is why teams are focusing on Bilal so much. In both French leagues he played in, Bilal looked like a man amongst boys defensively. Raptors fans are familiar with the 6’8 height and 7’2 wingspan, eerily similar to OG Anunoby’s build (though Bilal is much thinner). He can use that length to deter both shooters and those who drive to the rim.
His ceiling as a defender is quite high, both due to his physical attributes and his high IQ at guarding multiple positions. He was often used as a defensive stopper for the Mets 92. His quickness is also noteworthy, being able to move laterally to stay with his man and also close out on shooters effectively if he needs to recover. His long wingspan helps in this area as well.
With his combination of instincts and physical tools, Bilal is a good isolation defender, and showed good ability to guard both bigger and smaller opponents when put in a 1v1 situation. Bilal’s a good athlete. Combined with his long arms he’s an effective rim deterrent.
Areas of Improvement
Not a shooter at this point. His form is pretty slow and his release has some funky looking mechanics. Almost like he has to think for a second before getting up (refer to the three-point clip in the offence section to see what I mean). He’s had several games where he’s made one or two threes on low attempts, and I’d expect that to be the norm for him in the NBA. Off the catch, he’s only about 35% on open shots, and he’s a total non factor at shooting off the dribble.
I actually like his upside as a playmaker, and he’s shown some encouraging signs when it comes to moving the ball. Still needs to improve his handle and decision making in order to be a positive passer at the next level. A negative assist/turnover ratio in both leagues doesn’t bode well for him when he hasn’t been in a featured role most of the time.
Speaking of handle, it’s coming along but still quite rough. Best used in a complimentary role until he gets more comfortable. Lots of his isolation possessions on offence were a struggle to watch. I’d expect most of his production in his rookie campaign to come from transition plays or second chance points.
Fit on the Raptors
In essence, he’s a typical Raptors pick: a young, lengthy wing with high defensive potential and a questionable offensive skillset with minimal production against higher level competition. He could result in an amazing reward if developed properly, but could also be looked back on as a head-scratching pick if not.
Defensively he’ll likely fit in from day one, being able to probably guard most wings, forwards, and bigger guards, though he would probably need to put on some weight as he’s checking in under 200 right now. Offensively is where the fit gets weird. It’s hard to see him in a lineup without shooters and playmakers around him. Bilal’s flashes of ball-handling and getting to the rim need to be aided by the threat of outside shooters to open up lanes to the interior for him. On a team like the Raptors, it’s also difficult to foresee Bilal actually being able to get meaningful run at handling the ball if they’re going to try and compete, and/or bring back Siakam and VanVleet next season.
I am not crazy about his fit, even if he fits the usual profile that Masai and Bobby have typically fallen in love with over the years. His production in the top French league didn’t provide much confidence, even with some encouraging flashes here and there. Given the fact that he’s more of a defensive specialist at this stage, it’s expected Bilal will need to be a long term investment for the team that selects him. The potential of him busting will be fairly high if his development isn’t prioritized on a team that he fits well on. As currently assembled, the Raptors have poor spacing and guard depth, two things that Bilal is going to need to complement his skills as he enters the league.
I wouldn’t mind if the Raptors selected Bilal at 13, but they would need to acquire another first round draft pick if they want to feel comfortable coming out of the war room. They don’t exactly have much in the way of insurance if this pick doesn’t work out, and it’s hard to see Bilal developing properly if the Raptors aim to be competitive, as they would be putting him on a tighter leash while they try to win more games.
Brendan’s Assessment
I understand the recent obsession with him, I really do. I would not object to a few teams selecting him near the end of the lottery. That being said, he’s a high-risk/high-reward prospect, and the team selecting him would need to be prepared for the fact that he might not be ready to play positive basketball for his first couple years.
His age, combined with his physical measurements, defensive prowess, and flashes of upside when it comes to being an all-around wing means I’m high on him, but I do think there are some caveats to his game that have kind of been washed away in all of the recent hype. Due to his consistent improvement and impressive play at the U21 level, I think an elite defensive role-player who is comfortable slashing and playing as a cutter is a reasonable outcome for him. Star? He has the tools. He’s young. But that might be a little more unlikely. Pretty much everything would have to go right. The fit would need to be perfect, the shooting would need to hit some outlier improvements, and the team would need to prioritize him and his fit from day one. It’s tougher to project something like that.
Bilal Coulibaly is 16th overall on my big board.
Nick Smith Jr. – G, Arkansas
Offence
Suffering a knee injury that limited him to 17 games and only 14 starts, Nick Smith Jr. underwhelmed in his freshman season at Arkansas. I do believe that his injury played a major part in his stats not living up to expectations for someone who was projected to be a top 10 pick before the season started. The lack of reliable footage is going to make Smith’s section a little shorter, but I’ll contextualize his strengths to the best of my ability.
Don’t get me wrong, the production wasn’t good. I think the only reason he’s still expected to go in the first round is because teams are hoping this was an anomaly from a player who really impressed as a go-to scorer in high school.
Those flashes as a scorer were still apparent on some occasions at Arkansas. I like Smith’s ability to stop on a dime and get a shot up. Pretty good at getting into his form off the dribble. His isolation skills were more apparent in high school, but he showcased a nice combination of dribble moves as well as ability to get into his shot.
Smith is one of the faster guards in the class, and is able to change speed with relative ease in order to shake defenders to get to his spots. Again, a skill of his that was a little inconsistent at Arkansas but you could tell was there. Over-reliant on his floater, but it’s pretty well polished and it will surely be an effective weapon for him from day 1 in the NBA. Watch how fast he switches from a live dribble to putting a floater up here:
His form is pretty smooth and quick. Only 33% off the catch but the misses aren’t bad and it’s hard to see much else wrong with his form. Meaning it must be the lingering effects of the injury or the inability to get into a groove due to inconsistent playing time.
Some of his bigger makes just have this swagger to them, you know he would relish the opportunity to take big shots.
I like his potential as an off-ball player as well, and the free throw form is good, though he could stand to get to the line more.
Smith had some run at the point, with some encouraging signs of good decision making and playmaking ability, though his actual output in this area was relatively lower than what you’d like to see from a highly scouted guard. Anthony Black was the usual guy running the show at Arkansas.
Defence
At 6’5, Smith has some nice size at the 1 and would still be close to average size at the 2. His wingspan hasn’t been measured but has been reported to be in the 6’8-6’9 range, giving him some length. His defence is more potential than anything at this point. He had sequences of engaged, committed defence against some tough opponents and generated a decent amount of steals. His size and tools should give NBA teams optimism that he can become an above-average defender with the right coaching and teammates around him.
That said, Smith’s defence still wasn’t anything to write home about.
Areas of Improvement
Some questionable decision making at Arkansas. More of a combo guard than a point guard at this point. His assist numbers weren’t the best and he was often used to generate looks for himself rather than others. Needs to improve his playmaking if he wants to be more versatile at the next level.
There’s some concern with his ability to create space. He has some pretty moves, but if he can’t generate separation, then how good is he as a ball-handler in reality? His low number of rim attempts is pretty alarming for a player looking to score as well. He put up 34 attempts at the rim total, and seemed afraid of contact on drives.
Smith has nice size on defence but struggles with staying focused and playing with effort on every possession. He’s also quite thin and would need to gain weight if he wants to defend bigger guards in the NBA.
The knee injury affected his play, for sure, but it’s also something to keep an eye on if it lingers or returns. It could be a short career for him if he keeps injuring it.
Fit on the Raptors
Like Bilal, Nick Smith would be a long term investment. I think he could surprise initially with some supplementary shooting, given he has a full offseason to recover from his injury and will likely come off the bench in his rookie year, giving him less pressure. That said, it’s still a little difficult to project how the rest of his game will come along.
I would be surprised if the Raptors took a chance on him. It’s a departure from their usual MO of defence-first prospects, but it would be a refreshing change if they looked at high-end offensive upside for once. Long term, you hope he hits on that go-to scorer potential that he showcased in high school. Short term, maybe give him a little bit of freedom off the bench to try and inject some offence and develop him as a lead guy.
Defensively, the fit is okay. I think Smith is going to struggle with consistency, especially if asked to focus on scoring. Pairing him with another good defensive backcourt-mate would probably be key. I’d also look at pairing him with some superior playmakers just because I don’t believe he’s ready to take full-time run at the point just yet.
Brendan’s Assessment
I feel as though my opinions around Smith have become more and more hypocritical the more that I’ve watched his film. I typically tend to be lower on prospects who had statistically poor seasons, yet I think Smith has some real value in the middle of the first round and will probably end up surprising people in the league. The knee injury is something that also plagued OG Anunoby as a sophomore at Indiana, which hurt his stock as well and led to the Raptors getting a steal at pick 23.
I still buy the scoring upside if teams are patient with him. I think the flashes of off-the-dribble scoring and advanced touch are real, and his shiftiness and burst should come back once he’s fully healthy. The shot should be fine. That said, I can’t deny the concerns with his rim finishing, lead guard ability, and general inconsistencies that may not be related to his injury woes.
Nick Smith Jr. is the 20th overall prospect on my big board.
Jalen Hood-Schifino – PG, Indiana
Offence
Unlike Smith, Jalen Hood-Schifino unfortunately doesn’t have the excuse of an injury to fall back on when it comes to his offensive performance. He’s quite rough as an offensive player, and I’m not sure if I buy the upside in the same way that I would with Smith or Coulibaly.
He does have some positives worth noting. The mid-range is really where Jalen shines. One of the best mid-range scorers in the country, shooting at 42% in this area off the dribble.
He tended to pull up in the mid-range off of pick-and-roll sets. Indiana ran a lot of PNR plays, and Jalen took advantage of them. He averaged a little over 9 PPG out of PNR sets as the scorer or playmaker. Some of his best passes were set up off pick-and-rolls.
Lot of two-man game was run with him and Trayce Jackson-Davis. Could expect to see a similar scenario in the NBA if he goes to a team with a good big. Made some impressive passes to his big teammates waiting for looks inside.
A good ball-handler, Jalen generated some smooth plays at Indiana. Either going to his right to pop a mid-range shot or sliding to the rim.
Lots of Jalen’s production also came out of transition. Indiana was good at getting out to run after a stop, and those plays usually ended with Hood-Schifino at the rim or a teammate finishing one of his outlet passes.
Defence
At 6’5.25 with a 6’10 wingspan, Jalen is one of the more physically imposing guards in the draft. He has good physical tools and can defend both guard positions with ease. Jalen can apply pressure well and stick with his man on the perimeter. Starred at defending isolation plays against other ball-handling guards.
Off-ball there’s a lot to like as well. He plays the passing lanes pretty well and has a lot of upside as a help-defender. He uses his quick hands to generate deflections and his long arms help him get in the face of his opponents. He uses his feet well, and his lateral quickness is impressive, keeping him locked on his man. Defence is his calling card, and it’s what is going to get him drafted.
Areas of Improvement
The shooting consistency is maddening with Jalen. From mid-range, his shot is quite smooth. But he just hasn’t been able to put it together outside the arc. He was only 31% off the catch from deep, with his overall percentage from that range being only slightly higher. His misses go wide left or right rather than long or short, meaning something is wrong mechanically.
Despite running the point for Indiana, Jalen’s playmaking outside of PNR sets or transition passes didn’t impress me. He had a low assist total given his usage, and only averaged 0.9 more assists than turnovers, and it’s not like he was playing with poor teammates who couldn’t react to passes. He’ll have to improve his decision making and familiarity with other plays if he wants to be a successful playmaker in the NBA.
His handle is good, but struggles when pressured. Not really a self-creator in isolation situations.
Despite his size, he isn’t a good athlete. Jalen only recorded one dunk in Indiana’s half-court offence all season, and I have concerns with his finishing translating to the NBA due to how slow and not-bouncy he is. His finishing at the rim wasn’t particularly noteworthy compared to other lottery-bound guards.
His advanced stats are simply alarming for a supposed lottery prospect on a top 25 college team. Nothing implies Hood-Schifino is a net-positive player at this point in time.
Fit on the Raptors
I think Jalen is a pretty Raptors-y pick. As I’m writing this, he’s mocked to Toronto in mock drafts by ESPN, The Ringer, and The Athletic. Thaaaat makes me a little nervous…
I don’t think many teams are watching his film confident that they’ll be coming away with somebody who can become a scoring guard. You’re drafting him for his defence and size at his position, maybe hoping that his mid-range scoring will lead to something down the line. Given that the Raptors have a history of going defence-first and gravitating towards with prospects who have long wingspans, I could see them falling a little in love with the idea of Hood-Schifino.
The fit is a little questionable. He was adept at running PNR in college, but it’s unknown just how much PNR Coach Darko will be running in his new offence. Indiana had some quality floor spacers to make things easier for Jalen, with three regulars shooting above or close to 40% from deep. The Raptors would be lucky to have one such shooting threat on their team next season. He wouldn’t help the spacing the team so drastically needs, and I don’t think his playmaking ability is good enough to take the reins from Fred VanVleet, should he depart. Granted, you bank on improvement in a more featured role here.
I think Hood-Schifino would be a bad pick at 13. As it stands, it’s expected that some amount of the previous prospects I’ve covered in this series are going to be available when the Raptors are on the clock. Given his flaws and how his game looks like it will grow over the next few years, picking Jalen over someone like Cason Wallace, Kobe Bufkin, Gradey Dick, or even Bilal Coulibaly would be a weird decision.
Brendan’s Assessment
Jalen’s combo of size and defensive versatility is keeping him at a first-round grade for me, but I can’t choose to ignore his shortcomings offensively, nor the massive red flags that are his impact metrics and advanced stats. I’m not as high as him developing his outside shot as the other two prospects in this piece because some of his misses from deep were so far off that it didn’t even look like he knew where to aim. I think there is a role for him in the league, but not on any teams looking to pick in the lottery.
Jalen Hood-Schifino checks in at number 27 overall on my big board.
This marks the end of this year’s individual prospect coverage from yours truly. I hope you all enjoyed, and we’ll be putting out a draft roundtable featuring some other Raptors Republic authors tomorrow, so you can see everybody’s opinions on the upcoming draft! Which prospect do you hope the Raptors pick this year?
