For the second time in two weeks, this is it. Game 7. The Toronto Raptors are hosting the Miami Heat with their season on the line, with franchise history at stake. The Raptors have never been in a conference final, they’ve never been further than this, and there’s perhaps never been a greater sense of the franchise being at it’s absolute peak. It’s huge.
Unlike Game 7 in the first round, I don’t feel nearly as calm, which is strange. In pure outcome terms, this Game 7 should matter less. The Raptors have already accomplished their primary goal for the season, pushing past the first round. How well they played all year may have shifted the goalposts, but I went back and looked at a lot of preview content this weekend, and all anyone talked about was getting out of the first round. They’ve done that, they’ve gotten over that hump, and combined with a 56-win regular season, this team has already turned in the best year a Raptors team ever has.
And still, I’m anxious, and far more nervous than two weeks ago. Part of it may be lacking the post-half marathon runner’s high, but I think the bigger reason is that, while the first round was more important about where this team will go, I’ve just never really experienced the chance to go this far. Back in 2001, I was only just starting to get into basketball, and that playoff run was instrumental in hooking me in. But I wasn’t heavily invested, and I doubt I realized at the time just how rare a push to the conference finals – the last four teams standing – is. As much as the Raptors are building something sustainable for the long-haul, this opportunity might not be there next year. It might not be there again with this core. As we’ve seen, it might not be there for another 15 years.
That shouldn’t put any sort of extra pressure on the Raptors, because they’ve surely put in on themselves. They’re all aware of their basketball mortality and how few and far between these chances can be in a career. Everyone dreams of an NBA Championship, of course, but only one of 30 teams wins it each year, and the more realistic (cynical?) approach is to recognize that your current chance to make a deep run is likely going to be your best one.
When we’re looking back at the season later in the summer, the outcome of this game might not matter a great deal. A swing of a couple of points in one game isn’t going to change how Masai Ujiri evaluates three years of this core together, and we’ll remember this as the best Raptors season ever. For those more pessimistic or less able to feel things, maybe an impending defeat at the hands of the Cleveland Cavaliers makes this outcome matter less. But wouldn’t you like that chance? Wouldn’t you like the team to still be playing in late May, maybe an injury away from having a real chance to go to the NBA Finals? Wouldn’t you like to be one of the final four teams left, and solidify what we’ve long thought all year, that the Raptors were the second-best team in the East?
Those seem like lower hanging fruit in terms of goals for the team you root for, I understand. But in 21 years, the Raptors have had this opportunity but once. They have it again today, and I’m not sure when they’ll have it again. And so I’m far more nervous than two weeks ago, because instead of needing this win, I really, really want this win.
The game tips off at 3:30 p.m. from the Air Canada Centre. ABC has the game in the U.S., with Mike Breen, Mark Jackson, Jeff Van Gundy, and Doris Burke on the call, while TSN has the Canadian broadcast and TSN 1050 has radio rights. Danny Crawford, James Capers, and Zach Zarba are your officials.
Required reading
Here’s what you need ahead of Game 7, assuming you haven’t been keeping up.
*Tamberlyn has your very in-depth game preview, Shyam has a little more, and Will and Zarar teed up the game on the podcast yesterday, too.
*Hassan Whiteside and Jonas Valanciunas have been ruled out for Game 7. That leaves the Raptors struggling how to figure out the Heat’s small-ball attack.
*This is stressful, but the Raptors are right where they need to be.
*Remembering to mention this time: I’ve been doing semi-occasional TV spots for CTV during the playoffs. I helped preview tonight’s game, and you can find the video (plus all my usual radio hits) here.
Raptors updates
It’s hard to figure what the Raptors may change this time out. Dwane Casey has adjusted well game-to-game throughout the playoffs, and he needs to find a solution to 30 minutes of Miami small ball. The Raptors’ starters were fine, as was the Kyle Lowry-plus-regular-season-reserves unit that’s been ether all season, but nearly every other fivesome struggled with a small Miami front. Through three games without the starting centers, the Raptors have really taken advantage of the now-shelved Amar’e Stoudemire and Udonis Haslem, played to about even with Josh McRoberts at the five, and given up 22 net points in 56 minutes when Miami goes sans-center.
The Raptors couldn’t take advantage of their edges playing big, and the Heat did well to leverage their strengths small, pulling bigs away from the rim and really getting out in transition. Strategically, the Raptors need to commit to pounding their advantage and crashing, upping the physicality and hitting the offensive glass. If they’re not going to do that, there’s little excuse for shoddy transition defense and being bled to death by Goran Dragic drag screens. Just don’t go halfway – exploit your advantage or sell out to neutralize theirs.
“The guy guarding the ball’s gotta lock into the ball,” Casey said, suggesting the team was caught waiting for screens and mistiming help. “Everyone int e world knows that Dwyane Wade is one of the best in the world at rejecting a screen…We’ve gotta do a better job of communicating the screen.”
Personally, I think the answer is to go small off the bench. That eschews the size advantage and gives the Heat the size edge at most positions, but the Raptors’ bench units haven’t rebounded well, anyway, and it’s a way to goose the offense with some extra ball-handlers and ensure things to come to a halt with Lowry or DeMar DeRozan sitting. (I expect Lowry to play in the 44-minute range, by the way, taking two quick breathers in the first half and then playing the entire second half.) It’s not easy to juggle things that way, but Casey could pull Patterson halfway through the first and third, shift DeMarre Carroll to the four (or bring James Johnson in as the four, though that’s trickier alongside Biyombo), and then have Patterson slide in as the de facto backup center early in the second and fourth.
It’s risky, but Thompson and Nogueira have been middling, it’s probably unfair to ask anything from Luis Scola at this point, and the Raptors have to try something beyond “execute better” if the Heat have sent Stoudemire and Haslem to pasture.
Here’s what the rotation could look like, assuming Bruno Caboclo and Jonas Valanciunas are inactive:
PG: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph, (Delon Wright)
SG: DeMar DeRozan, Norman Powell
SF: DeMarre Carroll, Terrence Ross, Bruno Caboclo
PF: Patrick Patterson, James Johnson
C: Bismack Biyombo, Lucas Nogueira, (Jason Thompson), (Luis Scola), Jonas Valanciunas
Check back before tip off to confirm the starters, as neither coach confirmed. UPDATE: Same starters.
Heat updates
Most of your analysis of the Heat lineups can be found above. They’re going to stay small. McRoberts will see the backup center minutes but Justise Winslow is the guy, with the Heat deploying five like-sized wings, switching a ton on defense, and having their non-shooters move a lot without the ball on offense. They’ll put any natural Raptors center’s man in the pick-and-roll as a screener to pull the rim protection out of the paint, they’ll push the pace in transition, and if nothing materializes that way, they’ll have Dragic and Wade attack one-on-one.
What the Heat did in Game 5 worked. They even got aggressive with three point guards on the floor at one point. Erik Spoelstra isn’t afraid to just play his best five, and I don’t see why he’d go away from the eight-man rotation that worked so well two days ago. He’ll be ready to counter any Toronto adjustments, to be sure, but the Heat will play their (new) game so long as it’s working.
Assuming Chris Bosh (he didn’t travel with the team) and Whiteside (he did) are the lone inactives, the rotation will look something like this:
PG: Goran Dragic, Josh Richardson, Tyler Johnson, (Briante Weber)
SG: Dwyane Wade, Gerald Green
SF: Joe Johnson
PF: Luol Deng (Dorell Wright), Chris Bosh
C: Justise Winslow, Josh McRoberts, (Udonis Haslem), (Amar’e Stoudemire), Hassan Whiteside
Check back for an update on the official starters, as neither coach confirmed. UPDATE: Same starters.
Pre-game news & notes
*The Raptors exercised their right to a closed walkthrough up to two hours before the game, closing the curtains and sending the Heat to the practice court on the third floor around 1 p.m. The Heat looked displeased, but it’s the Raptors’ right, and even if they didn’t need it, it’s a nice piece of gamesmanship to disrupt the Heat’s comfort level on a day in which neither team held shootaround.
*It’s definitely going to come down to the wire. Who’s clutch is more clutch?
Playoff Clutch stats (game within five points in final five minutes)
1. Dwyane Wade: 41 points, 51.7 FG%
3. Kyle Lowry: 30 points, 45.5 FG%— Mike Mazzeo (@MazzESPN) May 15, 2016
*Casey, on making changes: “There are some things we can change to make sure we can handle some of the things they did to us differently…Most important part is our disposition. Our disposition of getting down, getting ready.” He specifically mentioned doing a better job of keeping Biyombo close to the rim in a help position regardless of what the Heat are doing elsewhere on the court.
*The Raptors are ready. Here’s Casey: “It’s hard to tell. I do believe we’re ready to play. I would be surprised if we didn’t come out and compete with a high level of focus. But to say you can tell the mood, I don’t know. If you’re not ready to play today, if you’re not jacked up, we;’re in the wrong profession.” Well, yeah.
*On the Raptors’ shooting woes from outside, Casey credited Miami’s defense to a degree but correctly pointed out that the Raptors are missing some shots they normally make. With that said, “It’s a make or miss league.” In other words, there’s no time to regress after tonight. They’ve gotta drop, or there won’t be a chance for them to drop later.
*I don’t know,” Spoelstra said of getting more open corner threes last game.” It may or may not be available tonight. We’re not a big 3-point shooting where we’re gonna generate 30 or 40 attempts. It was good for us the other night. This night might be different.” He also stressed the importance of Miami protecting the ball, as turnovers have been a huge swing facotr, particularly early in games. The aggression-protection balance seems to be a key focal point for Miami.
Assorted
*Here’s your Game 7 swag update:
A photo posted by Blake Murphy (@eblakemurphy) on
Game 7 shirts. pic.twitter.com/UaQbKYbsxH
— Blake Murphy (@BlakeMurphyODC) May 15, 2016
*Wait, I thought we made a rule that no marquee Toronto athlete was allowed to graduate from an ACC school on the day of a Game 7?
Walking across the stage today to receive my diploma from @DukeU will be the greatest accomplishment of my career…thus far! #HDMH 🎓
— Marcus Stroman (@MStrooo6) May 15, 2016
*Drake hosted SNL last night. The Raptors got a shout out in his “More than a meme” intro song, and there was a great Black Jeopardy sketch where Drake went full Canadian. There was also a pretty fun Drake-overreacts-rap sketch. But otherwise, it wasn’t the best of omens – the writers really didn’t do him many favors (Beck Bennett’s man-baby character, really?) and Drake still came off affable and self-deprecating and mostly likable (or maybe just to someone who already really likes Drake). Anyway, if you were looking for any sort of good omen, this wasn’t really it. The Toronto Sun also but Vince’s missed buzzer-beater against the Sixeers on the cover, and the Jays made a big comeback and then blew the game in extras. At least we’re primed now.
The line
Game 1: Raptors -4.5 (Heat 102, Raptors 96, OT)
Game 2: Raptors -5 (Raptors 96, Heat 92, OT)
Game 3: Heat -5.5 (Raptors 95, Heat 91)
Game 4: Heat -5 (Heat 94, Raptors 87)
Game 5: Raptors -4.5 (Raptors 99, Heat 91)
Game 6: Heat -4 (Heat 103, Raptors 91)
Game 7: Raptors -4.5
I predicted Raptors in 7. I thought they’d split the first four, then the next two, then win Game 7 at home. Nothing has changed dramatically enough for me to not stand by that prediction. It’s going to be tight, but they’re going to get it done. See you in Cleveland.
Raptors 95, Heat 92
