The most important day of the Toronto Raptors’ season, or maybe of the last couple, has finally come: the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery.
After finishing an injury-riddled 2024-2025 season 30-52, Canada’s team finds itself, like 13 other franchises, hoping for some good fortune to land a potentially franchise-changing talent in the 40th annual drawing process.
Of course, the main prize at the top is Duke superstar freshman and Naismith College Player of the Year, Cooper Flagg. The 18-year-old has two-way potential and a competitive streak that any team would covet.
It’s not just Flagg at the top, though he is virtually a lock at No.1, as Rutgers’ big, downhill guard Dylan Harper, his teammate in shot-creating wing Ace Bailey, and Baylor’s defensive bulldog V.J. Edgecombe all seemingly have gotten teams excited.
With the seventh-best odds of landing the first overall pick at 7.5 percent, it’s pretty unlikely, but not impossible, that the balls land the Raptors’ way. Out of Toronto’s eight potential outcomes, this is the second least likely to happen, with a 1.3 percent chance at the 10th overall pick being the least likely occurrence.
Full Toronto Raptors odds:
First overall pick: 7.5 percent
Second overall pick: 7.8 percent
Third overall pick: 8.1 percent
Fourth overall pick: 8.5 percent
Seventh overall pick: 19.7 percent
Eighth overall pick: 34.1 percent
Ninth overall pick: 12.9 percent
10th overall pick: 1.3 percent
*Toronto cannot land the fifth or sixth overall selection*
Simply put, the Raptors have a 31.9 percent chance of jumping up into the top four, while having a 68.1 percent chance of staying put at pick seven or dropping down.
Full Odds:
How The Lottery Works:
The actual lottery procedure itself will take place in a separate room just before the national broadcast. Select media, NBA officials, representatives of the participating teams, and a representative from Ernst and Young will be in attendance. Only the first four picks for the draft will have drawings conducted, with the remainder of the lottery teams selecting in positions five through 14 in inverse order of their 2024-25 regular-season records.
The NBA Board of Governors approved changes to the lottery system effective with the 2019 NBA Draft, reducing the odds so that the teams with the three worst records would share the same chance (14 percent) of receiving the No. 1 overall draft pick. The odds for the remaining participants in the 14-team lottery would be reduced gradually after the top three. It also ensures that the team with the worst record will receive no worse than the fifth pick. Under the pre-2019 system, the team with the worst record would pick no lower than fourth.
14 ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14 will be placed in a lottery machine. There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of 14. Before the lottery, 1,000 of those 1,001 combinations will be assigned to the 14 participating lottery teams.
The physical process begins with all 14 balls being mixed for 20 seconds, then the first ball is removed. The remaining three selections are then made between mixing intervals of a shortened 10 seconds. The team that has been assigned the combination of the four balls chosen will receive the No. 1 pick. The same process is repeated for the second, third, and fourth picks.
Of course, then NBA Deputy Commissioner and Chief Operating Officer Mark Tatum will announce the lottery results to a second representative from each participating team that will be seated on stage and the millions watching at home. Neither the Deputy Commissioner nor the team representatives on stage will be informed of the lottery results before the envelopes are opened.
Toronto’s Previous Lottery Luck:
The Raptors have won the lottery twice, in 1996 and a decade later in 2006. Toronto didn’t actually pick first overall the first time around, however, as a league rule prohibited expansion teams from drafting No.1, as the team settled for Marcus Camby second instead. In 2006, Toronto would win the lottery again with only an 8.8 percent chance, actually making the pick this time, selecting Andrea Bargnani.
Also of note, the team with the seventh-best odds pre-lottery has moved up into the top four in four of six years since the NBA made those aforementioned flattening of the odds changes back in 2019. Of course, Toronto themselves were one of these teams, moving from seven to four to select No.4, Scottie Barnes, in 2021.
Where The Raptors Stand:
As the roster currently stands, Toronto sits exactly $6,093,697 under the tax with two open roster spots and one open two-way slot. The first year of the rookie scale contract, virtually no matter where they land, will exceed that number regardless. Teams don’t have to get under the tax line until the end of the season to avoid a penalty, so there would be time to figure it out. AJ Lawson, Colin Castleton, and Jamison Battle are all on non-guaranteed contracts of around $2-million each, so there is some flexibility. The Raptors also have the No.39 overall pick incoming, and it remains to be seen if the team would want to sign that selection to a standard deal or a two-way contract. Chris Boucher and Garrett Temple are also pending free agents, and both have expressed interest in coming back.
There’s a lot still to be decided for the Toronto Raptors, both on the contractual side of things and on the on-court play itself. Where the team lands and who they decide to take will shed some light on all of these questions, as Toronto continues forward into this new era of Raptors basketball.
Prep work on the draft at Raptors Republic
No matter where the Raptors end up picking, we at Raptors Republic have already done plenty to help you get ready for the draft. A selection:
Some work on:
